Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin price cycles have long been a topic of debate among investors and analysts. According to Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki, the leading cryptocurrency could face a sharp correction of up to 70% in the coming years — primarily due to a widespread misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s underlying economic function.
Investors Still Don’t Understand Bitcoin’s Core Value
Speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki emphasized that Bitcoin’s price could decline between 65% and 70% within the next two years. He argued that the potential drop wouldn’t reflect a failure of the asset itself, but rather the psychology of uninformed investors:
“Even if Bitcoin falls to $70,000, it doesn’t lose its purpose. The real issue is that many investors don’t understand what Bitcoin actually represents. People tend to sell what they don’t understand at the first sign of panic — and that’s what creates downward pressure.”
Despite his bearish short-term outlook, Budki remains optimistic in the long run. He predicts that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million within the next decade, driven by both speculative interest and a growing number of real-world use cases.
Has the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Lost Its Relevance?
Some market experts believe the traditional four-year halving cycle may no longer dictate Bitcoin’s behavior as it once did. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that Bitcoin is now increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and global liquidity — rather than its internal supply mechanics.
According to Hayes, the direction of Bitcoin’s price is now shaped more by monetary policies and economic conditions than by halving events or block rewards.
Institutional Demand Brings a New Kind of Stability
Other analysts point out that the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin has made the asset more resilient to short-term volatility. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows that governments, crypto-focused banks, ETFs, and digital asset firms collectively hold over 4 million BTC, representing around 20% of the total supply.
This rising institutional exposure, some argue, helps moderate extreme price swings and supports the asset’s legitimacy as a long-term investment.
Xapo Bank CEO: “The 4-Year Cycle Still Exists”
On the other hand, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, maintains that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact. He notes that investors continue to view Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, meaning its price movements are still largely tied to market sentiment and cyclical patterns.
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