Yeliz Akmaca 
The crypto market faces a pivotal moment following the New Year rally as $2 billion in Bitcoin options expire today. This massive volume serves as a critical threshold for price stability, determining whether the market will sustain its momentum or succumb to mounting macroeconomic pressures and distribution.
Balanced Outlook in Bitcoin Options
Approximately 20,600 Bitcoin option contracts, with a nominal value of $1.9 billion, are set to expire today. The put/call ratio stands at 1.0, indicating a near-perfect balance between bullish and bearish positions. This data suggests a market characterized by indecision regarding the next major move. The “max pain” level is situated around $90,000, very close to current spot prices, meaning many contracts might settle “in the money.”
🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, $2.22B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $1.84B notional | Put Call: 1.05 | Max Pain: $90K
BTC open interest brackets spot, with heavy puts below $85K and calls building from $90K to $100K, creating pin risk… pic.twitter.com/9H3GFgtbiC
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) January 8, 2026
Ethereum Shows Stronger Bullish Sentiment
In addition to Bitcoin, roughly 123,000 Ethereum options are expiring with a nominal value of $384 million. ETH’s put/call ratio of 0.89 indicates a more dominant bullish sentiment compared to Bitcoin. Concentrated call positions above the $3,000 mark are particularly notable. As long as spot prices remain above this zone, dealer positioning may become more sensitive to upward volatility post-expiry.
Spot Market Consolidation and Resistance
While the total crypto market capitalization neared $3.3 trillion in early January, it has struggled to maintain that momentum, currently sitting around $3.19 trillion. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $89,500 before reclaiming the $91,000 level, yet strong resistance above $94,000 remains unbroken. Altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin have shown even greater fragility during this consolidation phase.
Macroeconomic Pressures: US Jobs Data
Beyond the options expiry, the market is bracing for the US December employment report. The Dollar Index (DXY) has gained 0.5% over the past week, exerting pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Gold. Additionally, renewed rhetoric regarding tariffs from the Trump administration adds another layer of uncertainty. Risks are accumulating behind this period of relative silence as the market awaits a clear catalyst.
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