Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin continues to gain attention after rising for the third consecutive month in September. Investors are now watching to see if the cryptocurrency can deliver positive returns for the seventh consecutive October. According to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, expectations of a Fed rate cut could increase risk appetite and provide a favorable environment for Bitcoin.
Fed Rate Policy and Bitcoin
The ADP report showed that private-sector employers cut 32,000 jobs in September, surprising analysts and boosting expectations for a Fed rate reduction. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on October 29. Mena stated, “As liquidity expectations rise, BTC tends to perform better; this provides advantages both as a digital gold hedge during economic uncertainty and as a high-beta asset when liquidity returns.”
Despite $2 billion in leveraged long positions last week, Bitcoin rose from around $108,000 to $118,000. The asset has gained 26% year-to-date. Meanwhile, a recent government shutdown could delay the release of the Labor Statistics Bureau’s employment report.
Mena added, “Short-term volatility from data interruptions and policy uncertainty is expected, but if the Fed proceeds with a rate cut in October and the dollar weakens, the environment becomes risk-on, historically supporting Bitcoin.”
October and Fourth Quarter Trends
Historically, October is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Last year, ETF approval developments and political events reinforced this trend. Grayscale research head Zach Pandl noted that if macro conditions persist and the Senate progresses on market structure legislation, BTC, ETH, and SOL could reach new highs in Q4.
Ether recently rose above $4,300 after falling to $3,800 last week. Despite 30% growth in 2025 so far, ETH has not mirrored Bitcoin’s October gains. Pandl highlighted, “The biggest risk for both crypto and traditional markets is a hawkish pivot from the Fed. As long as rates move lower and the economy holds up, asset valuations should remain supported.”
Investor Perspective and Technical Outlook
Ledn CIO John Glover pointed out differing technical views on Bitcoin. While he anticipates BTC could reach $145,000 by year-end, some analysts believe the bull market ended near a $125,000 target. Glover stated, “A dip to $100,000 or slightly below presents a buying opportunity. Once this bull cycle concludes, the bear market will begin.”
Key Takeaways for Bitcoin Investors:
- Fed rate cut expectations boost risk appetite
- September gains provide a strong foundation for October
- Technical analysis suggests opportunities between $100,000–$145,000
- Q4 historically represents Bitcoin’s strongest period
As market conditions fluctuate, investors may find positive opportunities in October through increased liquidity and favorable risk sentiment.
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