Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin probability of dropping below $65,000 in 2026 reached 72% on Polymarket. Analysts point to tight US liquidity conditions and ongoing bearish trends as factors increasing selling pressure. A weekend drop briefly pushed prices below $75,000.
Major Bets and Market Sentiment on Polymarket
Bets on Polymarket have strengthened the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $65,000. With roughly $1 million in volume, predictions for BTC dropping below $55,000 and hitting $100,000 by year-end implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively. This signals a reversal in overall market sentiment, erasing gains made after Trump’s election victory.
Institutional Views and Forecasts
Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, attributed the decline to US liquidity issues rather than crypto-specific factors. Bitcoin falling under $65,000 contradicts forecasts from major investment firms like Grayscale, Standard Chartered, and Bernstein. Last year, Grayscale projected BTC could exceed $126,000 by June 2026, citing institutional demand and clearer US regulations. Standard Chartered and Bernstein revised earlier high targets due to slowing ETF inflows but still expect BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026.
Polymarket Legal Situation
This news comes as Polymarket faces a court ruling in Nevada blocking its event contracts as unlicensed gambling. Other states, including Tennessee, have recently targeted the platform with enforcement actions.
Analysts’ Take: “Too Early to Hunt for the Bottom”
This market turbulence is not limited to technical indicators. Some analysts link the recent crypto sell-off to a broader bearish trend. CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since November 2025, falling below its 365-day moving average. Julio Moreno said, “Don’t try to find bottoms after a new leg down. Bear market bottoms take months to form.” Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan added that Bitcoin was not designed for price appreciation; its main use is to provide a form of money independent of governments and banks.
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