Emre Yumlu 
In a bold move that reignites bullish sentiment in the crypto markets, Wall Street giant Citi has updated its year-end price target for Bitcoin, forecasting that the leading cryptocurrency could soar to $135,000 by the end of 2025. In a more optimistic scenario, the bank even sees potential for BTC to climb as high as $199,000.
What’s Driving This Forecast?
According to Citi’s latest research, the revised projection is based on three core factors:
-
User adoption growth
-
Global macroeconomic trends
-
Demand for spot ETFs
The bank’s analysts model a 20% increase in Bitcoin network adoption, which creates a linear network effect. Alone, this factor could add approximately $75,000 to the current price level.
On the downside, weakening equities and gold performance could shave off about $3,200 from the price projection. However, an estimated $15 billion in ETF inflows is expected to add nearly $63,000 in value. Taken together, these assumptions result in a base case estimate of $135,000 per Bitcoin.
ETF Flows Becoming a Major Price Driver
Citi emphasizes that spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved in the U.S. in January 2024, now play a far more significant role in driving price action. Recent data suggests that over 40% of BTC’s price movements are directly influenced by ETF flows.
This surge in institutional interest is accelerating Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance. Citi highlights that as Bitcoin becomes more entrenched in indexes, faces fewer regulatory hurdles, and attracts larger institutional investors, its price is now being shaped as much by capital flows as by its technological adoption.
The Risk Is to the Upside
Citi’s analysts believe the risk to their forecast is tilted upwards. While user activity is declining at a slower rate than expected, ETF demand is growing faster than anticipated. This combination suggests that network effects could persist longer than previously modeled — adding further bullish momentum.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.