Haciyev Reşit 
As the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) prepares for its September rate meeting, Fitch Ratings and JPMorgan have released their latest forecasts, signaling that the likelihood of a rate cut is increasing.
JPMorgan: 25 bps Cut Expected in September
JPMorgan projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. The bank expects August CPI to come in at 2.9% year-over-year, with core CPI at 3.1%.
However, JPMorgan warned that stronger-than-expected inflation data could push the first rate cut to October or December instead.
The bank outlined the following potential market scenarios:
- Core CPI above 0.40% → S&P 500 could fall 5–2%
- Core CPI between 0.35–0.40% → S&P 500 may decline 5–1%
- Core CPI below 0.25% → S&P 500 may rally 25–1.75%
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted ongoing economic weakness, stating:
“I think the Fed will cut rates, but the decision may not be purely driven by economic data.”
Fitch: Faster Cuts Could Be on the Horizon
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings also pointed to growing signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. The agency emphasized that a weakening labor market could force the Fed to act more aggressively.
Fitch’s expectations include:
- 25 bps cuts in September and December 2025
- Three additional cuts in 2026
Fitch also noted that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to pursue further cuts, which may limit the U.S. dollar’s recovery potential.
Bottom Line
Both JPMorgan and Fitch agree that the Fed is heading toward rate cuts. However, the timing will largely depend on inflation trends, labor market data, and global economic conditions in the months ahead.
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