Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin and the crypto market have experienced significant volatility recently. BTC testing critical levels creates uncertainty for investors. So, is the market entering a bear run or a new bull phase? Experts emphasize monitoring both bear and bull scenarios closely to gauge the trend.
Bitcoin and Long-Term Technical Levels
Bitcoin has dropped below its 365-day moving average (around $102,000), losing a key support level. This technical breakdown historically aligns with the onset of bear markets.
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Price action below the 365-day MA
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Risk signal compared to historical cycles
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Pressure on investor confidence
Additionally, BTC approaching the 6–12 month UTXO cost basis indicates mid-term market stress. This development calls for investors to watch closely for potential bear market risks or a bullish market rebound.
Market Sentiment and RSI Indicators
The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 10, signaling extreme fear. Similar levels in the past preceded short-term bear trends or mid-cycle corrections.
RSI readings show most crypto assets in oversold territory. BTC and major altcoins have an average RSI of 43, reminiscent of mid-cycle corrections seen in May–July 2021 and August 2023.
On the other hand, some altcoins and short-term BTC movements hint at a possible bullish market recovery.
MACD and Market Momentum Analysis
The market-wide normalized MACD averages 0.02, reflecting weak bullish momentum. About 58% of assets still show positive momentum.
Bitcoin remains in negative MACD territory, while altcoins show a mixed picture. This indicates the market is still in a mid-cycle breakdown, with both bear and bull market possibilities present.
Critical Criteria for Bear and Bull Markets
Certain technical indicators are crucial to confirm a definitive bear or bull phase:
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BTC remaining below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks → Bear market confirmation
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Long-term holders selling over 1M BTC in 60 days → Bear pressure
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MACD flipping entirely negative or positive across the market → Bear or bull momentum
These conditions are not fully met yet, so the market remains in a high-risk transitional phase.
While the crypto market has not officially entered a bear market, it is experiencing mid-cycle stress. BTC and altcoins are under technical pressure, and investors should monitor both bear market pressures and potential bullish recoveries carefully.
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