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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has evaluated three possible Bitcoin price scenarios for the next six months. His analysis indicates that the current on-chain momentum is in the “initial rally” zone. According to Adler, there are three key possibilities that could shape the market from this point forward.
Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler
In his May 1 analysis, Adler examined three potential trends for Bitcoin over the next six months. He emphasized that the on-chain momentum is currently flashing “start” signals. The detailed analysis, published on CryptoQuant.com, breaks down the scenarios as follows:
Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)
If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, key on-chain indicators like NUPL and MVRV could reflect a new upward impulse. In this case, Bitcoin price could reach the $150K–$175K range, mirroring the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.
Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)
If the Ratio stays within the 0.8–1.0 range, the market may continue in a sideways trend within a wide price corridor. In this scenario, the price is expected to range between $90K–$110K, with participants maintaining their positions but avoiding increased exposure.
Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)
If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders might begin taking profits, potentially triggering a price correction to the $70K–$85K range. However, Adler notes that a correction has already occurred, making this scenario less likely.
BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market
In 2025, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit 64%, reaching its highest levels of the year and significantly delaying altcoin recovery.
Between January and April 2025, Bitcoin dominance increased by 13%. During this period, the altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) dropped from $1.13 trillion to $817 billion, resulting in a $300 billion (~28%) decline.
Notably, altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery around the $200 billion support zone from 2024.
If the market repeats previous cycles, a breakout above the 50-week moving average (50WMA) could push altcoins toward the $500 billion resistance zone.
Additionally, in the past three months, a few altcoins outperformed BTC, including Fartcoin (+8%), PancakeSwap (CAKE, +2.8%), and Monero (XMR, +19%). During the same period, Bitcoin dropped by 10%.
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