Ahmet Bedirhan Arvas 
Donald Trump has been encouraging the markets for a while, making various manipulative statements aimed at shaping investor sentiment. His latest remark seems to have significantly influenced investors. During his speech, he included the following statement:
We will keep the stock market at an all-time high.
With this promise, he once again gives hope to those already in the market or considering entering, possibly triggering another upward move. However, investors still hold one major doubt and one crucial question: How realistic are these words? Looking at today’s economic landscape, it is quite clear that there is a significant gap between what is being said and what is actually happening.
What Changed When Donald Trump Took Office?
In 2025, Donald Trump made numerous statements about the economy and initiated several actions—many of which, so to speak, backfired and painted markets in red. Despite the negative impact of his trade tariffs and policies on many sectors, he insisted that the U.S. stock market was “stronger” and that his intention was to keep it elevated. He even emphasized that everyone should remember how U.S. markets reached record highs earlier this year. While some investors criticize Trump’s approach, could the so-called “Trump effect” actually have had a positive influence?
However, despite these claims, the markets have frequently experienced major instability. Starting from the early months of 2025, U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines due to imposed tariffs, global trade tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. In fact, double-digit losses were not uncommon.
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Can Donald Trump Really Keep the Market at Its Peak?
High market prices are not sustained by statements alone. Although remarks can create short-term upward or downward movements, real market direction is driven by the following factors:
- Economic Data
- Global Balances
- Corporate Earnings Reports
- Interest – Inflation Rates
- Global Trade
These variables are the true determinants of market direction. Therefore, when a leader says “I will keep the stock market at its peak,” it naturally raises significant, and often unanswered, questions.
Recently, margin debt reached an all-time high. Margin debt represents the amount of money investors borrow from brokerage firms through margin accounts. This indicator is often used to evaluate potential market tops and bottoms. When margin debt hits a record level and the markets also reach record highs, the situation is commonly described as a “reflex” move or even a “bubble.” Under such circumstances, how convincing can Trump’s claim really be?
Periods like these offer the potential for high profits but carry equally high risks. They cannot be sustained by a single political statement.
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