Haciyev Reşit 
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has published the minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on July 29–30. The long-awaited documents reveal that policymakers are still navigating the direction of monetary policy, with differing opinions among members regarding inflation and employment risks.
Key Highlights from the Minutes
- Several members noted that the full impact of tariffs would take time to materialize.
- A significant portion of participants expressed concern over high asset valuations.
- Most members viewed inflation risk as outweighing employment risk.
- Some considered that the federal funds rate might not be far from a neutral level.
- Real GDP projections for 2025–2027 largely aligned with prior forecasts.
- Nearly all participants agreed that keeping interest rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range was appropriate.
- While tariffs affected commodity prices, uncertainty remains over their overall impact on inflation.
- A few members suggested policy adjustments might be more appropriate than waiting for inflation to fully materialize.
- The general view indicated that the Fed’s policy stance is currently “appropriate.”
- Officials are closely monitoring the stablecoin market and growing risks following the Genius Act.
- Economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year.
Employment Data Shock
The discussions gained further importance following disappointing July employment data from the U.S. Department of Labor, signaling a cooling labor market:
- Unemployment rose.
- Labor force participation fell to its lowest level since late 2022.
- May and June data were revised downward by over 250,000 jobs.
These developments supported concerns by Fed members Bowman and Waller about potential rate cuts. Shortly after the data release, President Donald Trump reportedly reacted by dismissing the head of the Statistics Bureau.
Eyes on Powell
Following the release of the minutes, markets experienced volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight short-term pullback. However, the market’s next major direction hinges on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.
This will be Powell’s last Jackson Hole message before his term ends in May 2026. Market participants are closely watching whether Powell will:
- Side with members favoring rate cuts amid a weakening labor market, or
- Support the hawkish wing prioritizing the fight against inflation.
Global markets and the crypto community remain focused on Powell’s upcoming signals.
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