Emre Yumlu 
Arthur Hayes, one of the most closely followed voices in the crypto market, has once again sparked debate with his assessment of Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook. The CIO of Maelstrom argues that current US monetary policy is being widely misunderstood and that this misinterpretation could become a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin prices in the coming years.
According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be engaging in an indirect form of monetary expansion—one that markets have yet to fully price in.
A “Technical” Program With QE-Like Effects
At the center of Hayes’ argument is a Federal Reserve mechanism known as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Officially, the Fed describes RMP as a technical liquidity management tool designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. Hayes, however, believes the real impact closely mirrors that of traditional quantitative easing.
He points out that under this framework, the Fed is purchasing roughly $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bills each month. While the central bank avoids labeling this as stimulus, Hayes argues that the result is the same: fresh liquidity entering the financial system. Unlike previous QE programs, RMP does not appear to have a clearly defined cap or end date, which, in his view, makes it even more supportive for risk assets over time.
“Not QE, Just Money Creation”
Hayes breaks the process down in simple terms. The Fed creates new money and uses it to buy government debt. The institutions selling those bonds then redeploy the newly created capital—either back into fixed income markets, through lending to hedge funds, or into risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Eventually, that liquidity filters through the broader economy.
From Hayes’ perspective, the distinction between QE and RMP is largely semantic. He describes the mechanism bluntly as the monetary printing press operating at full speed. Once investors begin to recognize this dynamic, he believes Bitcoin could respond aggressively to the upside.
A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026
Despite his long-term optimism, Hayes remains cautious in the near term. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000 through the end of 2025. The main reason, he argues, is that markets are still accepting the Fed’s narrative that RMP is not a form of monetary easing.
That perception, according to Hayes, could change in early 2026. If investors begin to treat RMP as de facto QE, he expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $124,000 level and potentially accelerate toward $200,000 within the first quarter of that year.
Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver
Recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions underscore the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut, combined with visible disagreements among policymakers, highlights a lack of clear direction. Hayes views this uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Bitcoin to strengthen its role as a monetary hedge.
As 2026 approaches, the broader message is clear: Federal Reserve policy—whether openly expansionary or not—may play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next major move.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.