Yeliz Akmaca 
According to Fidelity’s report, the amount of Bitcoin dormant for 10 years or more has exceeded the daily new supply. This strengthens BTC’s scarcity claim. However, some long-term investors have recently been taking profits.
On average, 566 BTC per day fall into this “ancient supply” category, while current daily BTC production remains around 450 coins. This development marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that long-term held coins are growing faster than new supply. This data stands out as a significant factor reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative.
Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright said, “The strong conviction of ultra-long-term investors is increasingly influential on the Bitcoin ecosystem.” According to the report, ancient supply is increasing regularly every day. The daily decrease rate in this supply category is less than 3%.
As of June 8, 17% of all bitcoin falls into the category of “ancient supply”—meaning these coins have not moved in a decade or more. What could this mean for scarcity, market dynamics, and investors’ conviction? Find our team’s thoughts: https://t.co/EALzrfS92c pic.twitter.com/Ckm3MylTLY
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 18, 2025
Bitcoin Supply Exceeds 3.4 Million BTC, Yet Market Remains Unmoved
With the dynamics changing after the 2024 halving, the dormant Bitcoin supply over 10 years has surpassed 3.4 million BTC. This corresponds to about 17% of the total supply. Coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto constitute roughly one-third of this ancient supply. However, many of these coins are likely lost.
Meanwhile, there has been a more frequent decrease in ancient supply since the 2024 US elections. The report states that the supply of coins held for five years or more has dropped by 39% daily since the election. This rate was normally only around 13%.
Some long-term investors are realizing profits. As uncertainty increases, the number of coin movers also rises. Wainwright notes that these movements may partly explain the price stagnation and declines seen in the first quarter of 2025.
However, an important warning exists. The dormant supply surpassing new supply does not necessarily mean a short-term price increase. On the contrary, increased supply activity can exert downward pressure on prices. Although 2025 is traditionally considered the peak of the Bitcoin bull cycle, BTC has only risen by 12% since the start of the year.
Fidelity notes that as institutional products increase, ancient supply becomes more widespread. This feature differentiates Bitcoin from other assets and could become even more critical in potential demand growth.
Last week, we highlighted how $BTC wallets that held >12m were the primary profit-takers. But that trend has now flipped. Yesterday:
🔹 <12m cohorts accounted for 83% of all realized profit
🔹 6–12m holders alone realized $904M – second-highest daily profit YTD pic.twitter.com/gBD8tLCjVG— glassnode (@glassnode) June 17, 2025
On the other hand, Glassnode data reveals a shift in investor behavior. Profit-taking trends have reversed among different investor groups.
Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.