Yeliz Akmaca 
As 2025 draws to a close, the stablecoin market has reached a historic milestone. According to CryptoQuant, total stablecoin supply climbed to $314 billion. However, around $69 billion remains parked on centralized exchanges, largely idle and awaiting market direction. Timing remains critical as the market searches for its next move.
The data is strong, but the question is why this capital has not yet been deployed. Liquidity exists, appetite does not—at least for now.
Most Liquidity Concentrated on Binance
CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk noted on December 29 that exchange-held stablecoin reserves represent roughly 22% of the total market. Binance alone holds $49 billion, accounting for more than 70% of exchange-based buying power.
OKX follows with around $10 billion, and Bybit holds about $3 billion. Together, the top three exchanges control almost the entire pool of exchange liquidity, creating the largest “waiting capital” cluster in crypto history.
Capital Flow in December
December data shows that strong inflows have yet to materialize. Around $8 billion left exchanges during the month—$3 billion from Bybit and $2 billion from Binance. OKX remained mostly unchanged.
Even after these outflows, Binance still holds close to 15% of global stablecoin supply. According to CryptoQuant, reserves like this matter most when sentiment changes. Exchanges with deeper pools can deploy capital first.
Everything Is Ready, Just Missing a Trigger
On-chain activity fell about 40%, while whales accumulated roughly 20,000 BTC. Open interest in futures expanded by $2 billion. The infrastructure is ready, leverage is in place, capital is waiting—the only missing piece is a trigger.
Bitcoin Struggles at Resistance, Signals Mixed
Bitcoin rebounded to $90,000 for a 2% gain in 24 hours but faced resistance. Ethereum recovered above $3,000, and major altcoins like BNB and XRP also saw short-term relief.
Experts remain split. CW noted that retail traders and whales were buying simultaneously on Binance. Ali Martinez warned the rally could be short-lived due to negative capital flows and ongoing spot ETF outflows. Derivatives data also indicates caution: Bitcoin futures funding rates remain high, signaling that leverage has not fully reset.
Patience Dominates Despite Optimism
Macro expectations for 2026—including looser monetary policy and potential capital rotation into risk assets—keep long-term optimism alive. For now, the record stablecoin stockpile shows capital is ready, but patience remains the dominant strategy until a clearer catalyst emerges.
The market is searching not for direction, but for timing.
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