Current Bitcoin Outlook and Market Pressure

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has been experiencing heightened volatility. After rebounding quickly from the $60,000 level toward $70,000, Bitcoin failed to sustain the rally and retreated back to the $66,000 range. This movement reignited discussions about a potential bear market, with some analysts arguing that the short-term outlook remains weak. However, JPMorgan does not interpret the pullback as structural deterioration, but rather as part of the market’s ongoing search for equilibrium.

JPMorgan’s Optimistic 2026 Scenario

JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin falling below its estimated production cost could activate stronger fundamental dynamics in the market. Historically, such pricing periods often signal that the market is approaching oversold territory, potentially paving the way for medium- and long-term recovery.

The bank highlighted two key catalysts for 2026:

• Increased institutional capital inflows
• The implementation of clearer and more predictable crypto regulations

Analysts believe that stronger and more permanent institutional participation could help offset sharp price swings driven primarily by retail investors. Over time, this shift could reduce volatility and foster healthier, more sustainable market growth. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who leads JPMorgan’s analysis team, stated that Bitcoin’s estimated production cost of $77,000 represents a critical threshold. According to him, prices below this level may lead to miner capitulation, resulting in supply-side consolidation that ultimately supports medium- and long-term market rebalancing.

“We remain positive on crypto markets for 2026 as we expect further growth in crypto flows. However, we anticipate this increase will be predominantly driven by institutional investors.”

Institutional Interest and Regulatory Impact

Despite the recent downturn, overall market volatility remains elevated. While retail investor interest appears to be weakening, institutional demand has remained relatively resilient. This dynamic suggests that a renewed capital rotation into crypto assets could provide a solid foundation for recovery.

JPMorgan also stressed the importance of regulatory developments in the United States. The advancement of legislative frameworks such as the Clarity Act could play a decisive role in encouraging institutional participation by 2026. Overall, JPMorgan’s assessment indicates that despite short-term price pressures, the long-term potential of crypto markets remains intact. Factors such as Bitcoin’s production cost dynamics, increasing institutional investment, and regulatory clarity point toward a more constructive outlook for 2026. From the bank’s perspective, current market fluctuations may be better viewed as a transitional phase within a longer-term growth trajectory.

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Clear Divergence Between Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver

JPMorgan analysts emphasize that momentum indicators point to a clear divergence between Bitcoin, gold, and silver. According to the report, Bitcoin futures are in oversold territory, gold futures are in overbought territory, and silver futures are trading at strongly overbought levels. This situation indicates a shift in investor preferences from crypto assets toward precious metals, while also bringing short-term profit-taking and limited price correction risks—especially for trend-following investors and commodity trading advisors.

The report also draws attention to changes in retail investor behavior. According to JPMorgan analysts, investors followed a portfolio-balancing strategy involving both bitcoin and gold throughout most of 2025. However, this trend reversed as of August. During this period, Bitcoin ETF flows stagnated and turned into net outflows in the final quarter of the year. In contrast, gold ETF inflows accelerated, and the year ended with cumulative inflows of approximately $60 billion. Strong inflows into silver ETFs were largely concentrated in the final quarter of 2025 and coincided with the period of bitcoin ETF outflows.

Institutional Investors Increased Positions in Silver and Gold

According to JPMorgan, institutional investors also supported this shift. Based on data derived from changes in open interest in CME futures, the bank notes that there was a noticeable increase in long positions in silver during the final quarter of 2025 and early 2026. Hedge funds were highlighted as playing a significant role in this increase, while a similar trend in gold futures was reported to have persisted throughout the past year. In contrast, no comparable increase in positioning was observed in bitcoin futures.

Analysts also shared important findings based on the Hui-Heubel ratio, which measures market breadth and liquidity. Gold, with its low ratio, indicates deeper liquidity and broader market participation, while silver’s ratio remains at higher levels. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has the highest Hui-Heubel ratio among the three assets, indicating more limited liquidity and showing that smaller orders can have a stronger impact on prices.

JPMorgan’s Long-Term Gold Scenario: $8,000–$8,500

While warning of short-term correction risks in gold and silver prices, JPMorgan analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold. According to the report, if private investors and central banks continue to increase their gold allocations, the share of gold in household portfolios could rise from the current level of around 3% to approximately 4.6%. This increase would strengthen structural demand for gold and provide long-term support for prices.

Under this scenario, JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could theoretically reach the $8,000–$8,500 range. The bank had previously shared a medium-term upside scenario of $170,000 for bitcoin based on volatility-adjusted comparisons. However, it has not provided clear confirmation on whether this target remains valid under current market conditions. JPMorgan’s analysis highlights a strong divergence between Bitcoin futures, gold and silver futures, and ETF flows. While precious metals face correction risks in the short term, long-term upside expectations for gold remain intact. On the Bitcoin side, oversold signals suggest that volatility may increase in the period ahead.

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Fusaka Upgrade Boosted Activity

In a note shared with clients, JPMorgan stated that the Fusaka upgrade, rolled out in December, significantly expanded Ethereum’s data capacity. According to the bank, this technical update eased data flow on the network, led to a rapid decline in transaction fees, and generated a short-term increase in both transaction volume and active addresses.

The Fusaka upgrade increased the number of “blobs” that can be written per block, aiming to reduce costs particularly for layer-2 (L2) networks that rely on Ethereum mainnet for data availability. This change partially alleviated the capacity bottlenecks that emerged after previous upgrades, reducing congestion on the network. JPMorgan analysts note that while this improvement is technically positive, it remains unclear whether its impact will be sustainable over the long term.

According to the report, Fusaka builds on the Pectra upgrade introduced in early 2025. Pectra had partially revived mainnet activity, which weakened after users migrated to L2 networks following the Dencun upgrade. However, JPMorgan analysts point out that similar technical improvements in the past have tended to lose their effect over time. A team led by chief analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou emphasizes that successive Ethereum upgrades have historically failed to generate a lasting increase in network activity.

L2s and Competing Networks Increase Pressure

According to JPMorgan, the pressure on Ethereum is not limited to the mainnet. The report highlights that network activity continues to shift toward layer-2 solutions such as Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism. In particular, Base’s rise as a major revenue generator within the L2 ecosystem signals weakening economic activity on the mainnet.

At the same time, competition from faster and lower-cost blockchains like Solana is intensifying the pressure on Ethereum. JPMorgan analysts note that speculative trends—such as NFTs, memecoins, and ICO-driven activity—that previously supported network demand have largely faded, leading to declines in transaction volume and user activity. Taken together, these factors raise further doubts about the durability of Ethereum’s current recovery.

Capital Fragmentation and the ETH Supply Issue

Analysts also warn that the shift toward application-specific chains poses a significant risk for Ethereum. Major projects such as Uniswap and dYdX migrating to their own chains have led to liquidity and revenue moving away from the Ethereum ecosystem. As a result, burned transaction fees have declined, ETH supply has increased, and total value locked (TVL) measured in ETH terms has fallen.

JPMorgan acknowledges that the Fusaka upgrade has delivered a clear short-term revival on the Ethereum network. However, the bank stresses that structural challenges persist and urges caution in interpreting the recent increase in activity as a sign of a lasting transformation. Ethereum’s long-term performance will continue to depend not only on technical upgrades, but also on the competitive landscape and broader ecosystem dynamics.

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Most of the Selling May Be Over

According to JPMorgan Chase analysts, a significant portion of the intense sell-off in the crypto market was completed toward the end of 2025. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank’s chief market strategist, highlighted that fund outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have slowed noticeably since January. This picture points to a weakening of selling pressure.

Panigirtzoglou noted that positioning data in the futures markets indicate that investors have largely completed their selling. This development offers important signals that pressure—especially in the altcoin market—is easing and strengthens expectations for a more balanced pricing environment in the short term.

The Sell-Off Was Not Driven by Market Stress

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have become key indicators of market direction in recent months. JPMorgan states that the decline in ETF outflows shows waning selling appetite among institutional investors. At the same time, more balanced positioning in the futures markets suggests that aggressive, sudden selling has given way to a cautious wait-and-see approach. This environment could support a more stable price structure for altcoins in the near term.

Another critical point raised by JPMorgan is the source of the sell-off. According to the bank, the current correction was not triggered by stress intrinsic to the crypto market itself, but rather by an October announcement from MSCI. MSCI had signaled that some crypto-related companies might be removed from certain global indices, prompting risk-reduction moves by index funds and large investors and increasing selling pressure across crypto-linked assets.

MSCI Decision Brought Temporary Relief

However, JPMorgan notes that MSCI’s more recent decision not to remove crypto-related companies during its February 2026 global equity index review has provided short-term relief to the market. This move reduced the risk of forced selling tied to index changes and strengthened expectations that the crypto market may be forming a bottom.

Overall, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that selling pressure—particularly in altcoins—may have weakened significantly. Slower ETF outflows, balanced futures positioning, and reduced MSCI-related risks all point toward the possibility of a recovery phase. While short-term volatility may persist, current data indicate that a more stable period could be on the horizon for the crypto market.

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JPMorgan Strengthens Its Presence in Crypto

JPMorgan, which was rescued during the 2008 global financial crisis and is often described as “too big to fail,” has long taken cautious yet consistent steps in financial technologies and digital assets. According to information reported by Bloomberg, the bank is evaluating a new service model in response to growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.

Although no final decision has been made, the scope of JPMorgan’s potential crypto services has begun to take shape should approval be granted. Under this model, the bank could allow clients to trade both spot cryptocurrencies and derivatives products.

JPMorgan executives emphasize that this significant step depends on three main criteria. First, the bank will assess whether institutional client demand is sufficient. Second, it will evaluate whether the proposed crypto products comply with JPMorgan’s strict banking standards in terms of risk management. Finally, U.S. and global regulations permitting such services will be a decisive factor. If all these conditions are met, JPMorgan could officially enter the institutional crypto trading space.

No Official Statement, but Preparations Continue

A JPMorgan spokesperson contacted by Bloomberg refrained from making an official statement, and there is currently no publicly announced final decision. Nevertheless, JPMorgan is not entirely distant from digital assets. The bank already provides 24/7 transfer and payment services to institutional clients via JPM Coin (the JPM token). This infrastructure is seen as a potential technical foundation for future crypto trading services.

Despite these developments, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is known for maintaining a critical stance toward cryptocurrencies. Although Dimon has made harsh statements about Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the past, the bank’s pragmatic steps in response to institutional demand stand out. This suggests that JPMorgan is attempting to strike a clear balance between executive rhetoric and business strategy.

Assessment

JPMorgan’s consideration of offering crypto trading services to institutional investors highlights the increasingly blurred lines between traditional finance and crypto markets. This potential move—covering both spot and derivatives products—could represent a significant turning point not only for JPMorgan, but also for the global banking sector as a whole. In the period ahead, regulatory developments and client demand will ultimately determine the outcome of this decision.

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$50 Million Tokenized Commercial Paper on Solana

As part of the transaction structured by JPMorgan, $50 million worth of commercial paper was issued. Buyers of this short-term, unsecured debt instrument included Coinbase Global and Franklin Templeton. Tokenizing the issuance on a blockchain is seen as a concrete example of the accelerating tokenization trend, driven in part by newly implemented regulations in the United States.

This transaction stands out as one of the earliest and most comprehensive examples where blockchain technology is used across both the issuance and servicing of securities. The more flexible regulatory approach toward crypto under President Donald Trump’s administration has helped boost company valuations in the sector and paved the way for the rapid expansion of crypto-based financial products.

Why Solana?

Founded in 2017 and launching its mainnet in 2020, Solana has emerged as a leading blockchain network thanks to its high throughput and low transaction costs. Its ability to process thousands of transactions per second with minimal latency makes it particularly attractive for large-scale, institutional use cases. These technical advantages play a key role in the adoption of blockchain-based securities and tokenization solutions by traditional financial institutions.

JPMorgan’s choice of Solana for this transaction shows that the network is no longer limited to crypto-native projects, but is increasingly being used within institutional finance. This decision further strengthens Solana’s position as a reliable infrastructure at an enterprise level.

Statement From JPMorgan

Scott Lucas, Head of Digital Assets Markets at JPMorgan, shared insights into the bank’s blockchain and tokenization strategy in comments to Reuters. He emphasized that JPMorgan plans to significantly expand its activities in this area, stating:

“In the first half of next year, we aim to expand this structure and JPMorgan’s role within it. Our goal is to diversify not only the investor and issuer base, but also the types of securities involved.”

Lucas added that the bank sees strong demand for this innovative structure, noting that growing institutional interest in blockchain-based financial products continues to support this momentum. He also reaffirmed JPMorgan’s commitment to supporting clients and strengthening its role in digital asset markets.

A Dual Role On-Chain

In the latest deal, JPMorgan acted both as the arranger and as an active technical participant by creating the USCP token on-chain. This approach demonstrates that the bank views blockchain infrastructure not merely as a supporting tool, but as a central operational mechanism.

Despite Jamie Dimon’s negative stance on Bitcoin, this move underscores JPMorgan’s strategic vision around blockchain and tokenization. The issuance on Solana highlights the increasing convergence of traditional finance and crypto technologies, marking another significant step forward in institutional adoption.

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Critical Factor for Bitcoin: Strategy’s Financial Resilience

In a report published by the JPMorgan team, it is stated that Bitcoin has recently faced two major pressures. Led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, analysts emphasize that beyond the decline in the network hash rate and mining difficulty, uncertainties surrounding Strategy are significantly more impactful. Accordingly, the real factor that will determine Bitcoin’s short-term price movements is how financially resilient Strategy is, as the world’s largest institutional holder of Bitcoin.

Decline in Hash Rate and Miners’ Condition

According to analysts, the decline in Bitcoin’s network hash rate is due to some miners reducing operations as a result of China reiterating its ban on private mining activities and high energy costs. Although production costs have fallen, the fact that the price remains below these costs has led high-cost miners to create selling pressure. JPMorgan estimates the current production cost at around $90,000.

Despite this, analysts say that miner selling is not the main factor determining Bitcoin’s direction. Instead, the decisive element is whether Strategy can meet its financial obligations without selling its large Bitcoin holdings.

What Does Strategy’s Financial Strength Indicate?

The metric showing the ratio of Strategy’s debt, dividends, and capital structure to its Bitcoin holdings currently stands at 1.13. According to analysts, this ratio indicates that the company is not under selling pressure. Additionally, the company’s recently announced $1.44 billion cash reserve is strong enough to comfortably cover dividends and interest payments for the next two years. This significantly reduces the risk of Bitcoin sales.

Although Strategy’s accumulation pace has slowed, its total holdings have surpassed 650,000 Bitcoin, showing that the firm remains one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders in the sector.

Index Decision Could Be a Key Market Catalyst

The index decision that MSCI will announce on January 15 is seen as an important turning point for the markets. According to JPMorgan, a possible removal from the index is largely priced in. Conversely, Strategy remaining in the indexes could trigger strong recovery momentum for both the company’s stock and the price of Bitcoin.

The JPMorgan report states:

“The main factor determining Bitcoin’s short-term price direction is not miner behavior, but the financial resilience of large institutional investors. Strategy’s ability to meet its obligations without selling is critical for the market.”

Assessment

JPMorgan’s analysis reveals that the short-term outlook for Bitcoin largely depends on Strategy’s financial structure. While miner selling pressure is significant, it is not the main driver. With index decisions approaching and macroeconomic conditions at play, Bitcoin’s price direction may become clearer in the coming period. In the long-term view, analysts believe Bitcoin carries strong appreciation potential similar to gold.

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MSCI’s Potential Policy Shift Sparks Outrage

MSCI, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, plays a central role in shaping global investment flows by determining the criteria for major market indexes. According to early indications, the firm is preparing to exclude companies that hold 50% or more of their balance sheets in crypto assets.

Such a move could significantly impact affected companies. Index funds are required to invest only in firms that meet specific inclusion criteria, meaning exclusion could trigger forced selling by passive investment vehicles. This could also weaken the capital inflows that many publicly listed crypto-treasury companies currently rely on.

Bitcoin Advocates Target JP Morgan: “Start the Boycott”

After JP Morgan relayed MSCI’s stance in its research report, anger surged across the Bitcoin community. Real estate investor and prominent Bitcoin supporter Grant Cardone said he withdrew $20 million from Chase and is pursuing legal action over alleged credit card misconduct—publicly backing calls for a boycott against JP Morgan.

Another well-known Bitcoin advocate, Max Keiser, urged investors to “crash JP Morgan and buy Strategy and BTC,” amplifying the boycott narrative. The rapid spread of these reactions highlights the growing divide between conventional financial institutions and cryptocurrency proponents.

Strategy Founder Michael Saylor Responds to the Proposed Change

Strategy, one of the companies potentially affected, entered the Nasdaq 100 index in December 2024, gaining substantial benefits from passive capital flowing into the benchmark. With MSCI’s proposed criteria change, attention shifted toward Strategy’s founder, Michael Saylor.

In a public statement, Saylor emphasized that Strategy is being misclassified:

“Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company. We create, structure, issue, and operate. Strategy is a Bitcoin-backed structured finance company.”

Saylor’s comments reflect the company’s stance that the updated criteria should not apply to its business model.

How the New Criteria Could Impact the Bitcoin and Crypto Market

If MSCI enforces the new rules, companies with balance sheets heavily weighted in crypto assets will face two options:

• Reduce their crypto exposure to meet the threshold for index inclusion

• Or remain outside major indexes and lose access to passive capital flows

Analysts warn that forced adjustments by these firms could trigger rapid sell-offs, potentially putting downward pressure on digital asset prices.

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JPMorgan: Bitcoin Is Undervalued Compared to Gold

In a note led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan stated that Bitcoin currently trades below its historical valuation relative to gold. The report notes that Bitcoin is priced around $102,000, roughly two-thirds of the value proportionate to private gold investment holdings, and that its fair value should be closer to $170,000.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, total private investment in gold stands at $6.2 trillion. For Bitcoin to reach a similar proportionate scale, its market capitalization would need to increase by about two-thirds implying a 67% price rise from current levels.

Volatility Balance Shifts in Bitcoin’s Favor

The analysts highlighted that as gold’s price volatility has increased in recent weeks, Bitcoin has become more attractive from a risk-reward perspective.

“We believe that futures markets are currently the most important instrument to monitor. Given the recent period of stability, it appears that the liquidation of risky positions has largely concluded,” the report noted.

JPMorgan pointed out that the deleveraging cycle in perpetual futures markets has mostly ended, laying the groundwork for a new bullish phase in Bitcoin’s market structure.

Deleveraging Phase Is Over

According to the bank’s research, the recent selling pressure in the market was mainly due to liquidations in derivatives. Analysts believe that after the October and November corrections, the market has stabilized, creating favorable conditions for a steady upward trend in the months ahead.

The report also emphasized that growing volatility in gold has begun to shift investor behavior. While retail investors still prefer gold and U.S. equities, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as an alternative hedge against stock market risk. JPMorgan’s analysts noted that this trend is also strengthening among institutional investors and central banks, signaling that digital assets are evolving into a new “safe-haven” asset class.

JPMorgan’s Model Suggests a Fair Value of $170,000

The bank’s gold-based valuation model shows that Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $68,000 below its fair value. Analysts explain that this gap indicates BTC remains undervalued on a risk-adjusted capital basis.

“This forecast isn’t based on sentiment or momentum indicators but on a mechanical model grounded in capital risk metrics. Therefore, the $170,000 target is supported by fundamentals rather than market psychology,” the report said.

Analysis

JPMorgan’s report suggests that institutional investors are once again beginning to recognize Bitcoin’s long-term value. The bank’s $170,000 price target is based on two key factors:

1. Closing the valuation gap with gold, and
2. The end of the deleveraging phase, signaling renewed market stability.

According to experts, this forecast points to a strong bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the first half of 2025, potentially marking the beginning of a new growth cycle driven by institutional capital and macroeconomic normalization.

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In the world of cryptocurrency, the security concerns of millionaires are rapidly increasing. The data breach at Coinbase, in particular, has created a new sense of danger in the industry. Hackers obtained users’ names, addresses, ID photos, and account balances. Such information is sufficient for malicious actors to select targets. Those with significant crypto assets are now prioritizing not only their digital security but also their physical safety. 

As a result, crypto investors are hiring professional security teams to protect themselves and their families, just as they secure their cold wallets. Experts emphasize, “You must protect not only your portfolio but also your personal safety.” Indeed, owning millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency comes with significant risks. 

Physical Attacks and Kidnapping Threats Become Reality 

The security issues in the crypto world are no longer confined to the online realm; they have now spilled into the physical world. The Coinbase data breach provided attackers with personal information, enabling them to target investors who could be attacked on the street or in front of their homes. 

For example, Ledger SAS founder David Balland was kidnapped along with his partner last January. Balland was seriously injured during the attack, and the incident caused significant ripples in the industry. Following this, the daughter and granddaughter of Paymium’s CEO were targeted for kidnapping in Paris. Although the plan failed, it heightened the industry’s security concerns. 

France’s Interior Minister intervened, announcing the establishment of a dedicated emergency police hotline for the crypto industry. Additionally, elite units were formed to provide security briefings and home protection assessments for industry executives, enabling faster and more effective responses to physical attacks. 

Crypto Companies and Investors Make Significant Security Investments 

Crypto firms are taking security risks very seriously. Coinbase spent $6.2 million on the security of its CEO, Brian Armstrong—an amount surpassing expenditures by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Nvidia during the same period. Other companies, such as Robinhood and Circle, have also allocated substantial budgets for their executives’ safety. 

Security measures are not limited to physical protection. Companies conduct real-time monitoring on social media and other digital platforms to prevent location leaks, making it harder for potential attackers to reach their targets. Additionally, comprehensive solutions such as armored vehicles, 24/7 protection, and threat assessments are offered to clients. Security firms like Infinite Risks International clean up the digital footprints of crypto investors and provide early warnings against potential threats. 

According to data recorded by prominent Bitcoin security advocate Jameson Lopp, more than 20 physical attacks have occurred worldwide this year. These incidents are not limited to Europe but are also happening in regions like the Americas and Asia. Kidnappings, extortions, and fraud cases are on the rise, forcing everyone in the industry to enhance both online and offline security measures. 

The crypto community is also reflecting security concerns in its events. For instance, the annual EthCC conference in Cannes implemented significantly stricter security measures this year compared to last year. French police, special forces, and private security firms collaborated to provide comprehensive protection at the event. 

However, despite these measures, some investors are avoiding travel to countries like France due to security risks. This situation underscores the magnitude of the global security challenges facing the industry. 

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