Emre Yumlu 
Despite the optimistic sentiment that has dominated the crypto market in recent months, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee believes Bitcoin (BTC) remains highly vulnerable to sharp corrections. According to Tom Lee, even though institutional participation and spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought greater legitimacy to the market, the leading cryptocurrency could still face a 50% decline in the future.
Bitcoin Still Prone to Sharp Corrections Said Tom Lee
Speaking in an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Tom Lee emphasized that Bitcoin’s inherent volatility has not disappeared. “I’m sure there will be 50% drawdowns,” he stated, warning investors against assuming that such steep declines are a thing of the past.
While many believe the growing institutional interest has made Bitcoin less volatile, Tom Lee argued otherwise. He noted that Bitcoin still mirrors the stock market’s moves — often amplifying them. “Over the past six years, the stock market has seen an unusually high number of 25% drawdowns. If the S&P 500 drops by 20%, Bitcoin could easily fall 40%,” he explained.
A Longer Cycle Is Emerging
According to Tom Lee, Bitcoin is now moving away from its traditional four-year cycle, which would have typically signaled a market peak in October. Instead, he believes a “longer cycle” is beginning to form.
Earlier this month, Tom Lee reaffirmed his bold forecast that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025. A 50% correction from that range would bring BTC back to around $125,000 — still near its current all-time highs.
However, if Bitcoin has already peaked, as some cycle analysts suggest, a 50% drop from the current level of $109,981 would push the price down to roughly $54,990 — a level last seen in September 2024.
Other Analysts Share Similar Concerns
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has voiced comparable warnings. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price pattern resembles the soybean market of the 1970s, which suffered a similar 50% crash.
Bitcoin has a history of sharp declines in short periods. In November 2021, BTC reached an all-time high of $69,000 before plummeting to around $35,000 in just three months.
Still, not everyone shares this bearish outlook. MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated in June, “Winter is not coming back,” expressing confidence that the market has entered a more resilient phase.
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