Yeliz Akmaca 
Following the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by US President Trump, the expected major fluctuations in global markets did not occur. On June 21, Trump announced airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. However, the market reaction remained limited.
Although US stock markets opened with declines, losses were quickly recovered. Oil and gold prices initially rose but then fell back. The global MSCI index only dropped by 0.12%. Safe-haven assets showed mixed performance: the Japanese yen lost 0.64% against the dollar, while gold prices slightly decreased. Experts attribute the market calmness to expectations that the military intervention will not be prolonged. The Trump administration is keeping its military actions against Iran limited and deterrent. The prevailing belief is that the regional conflict will not escalate.
Geopolitical Risks Are Controlled by Markets
According to Dan Ives from Wedbush, the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat is positive for the market. At this stage, the possibility of the Iran-Israel conflict turning into a regional war is considered low. Therefore, markets are not panicking.
Peter Boockvar, investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, states that market stability will be maintained if Iran ends its military nuclear program. Iran is not expected to take actions that would disrupt global oil supply. Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, says Trump does not want gas prices to remain above $4. It is also predicted that Trump will continue to pressure Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production.
Iran’s Countermeasures and the Strait of Hormuz Risk
Despite Iran’s parliament deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns remain limited. Experts emphasize that the likelihood of Iran implementing this threat is low. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy says Iran’s countermeasures will be limited. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices would surge above $100, panic would ensue in markets, and stocks could fall more than 10%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely.
In the past, Iran has made similar threats but did not close the strait. Papic notes that Iran is aware of the heavy retaliation that would come from the US.
Three Possible Scenarios for Oil Prices According to Analysts
- Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats outlines three scenarios shaping oil prices:
- Oil flow continues uninterrupted, Brent crude falls to around $60.
- Iran’s oil exports decline significantly, eliminating global oversupply, prices hover between $75-80.
- Expanded conflict threatens Gulf oil exports, prices could rise to $140 as in 2022.
- Whether price movements are temporary or permanent is critical. Recently, WTI oil prices rose by 10%, Brent crude by 18%.
Long-Term Positive Outlook for US Stocks
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, states that geopolitical developments will not change the long-term upward trend of US stock markets. Trump’s limited military intervention increases market confidence. Yardeni suggests the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites could create structural changes in the Middle East. Short-term uncertainty and volatility are possible, but market confidence could strengthen over time.
The expectation that Iran will respond limitedly and that the conflict can be controlled keeps investors cautiously optimistic.
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