Emre Yumlu 
In recent weeks, both gold and U.S. equities have been hitting fresh all-time highs. Yet, the crypto market hasn’t managed to mirror this rally. Despite high expectations for a strong breakout, Bitcoin and major altcoins are still struggling to approach their record levels. Analysts point to four key factors shaping this divergence: interest rate cuts, stablecoin reserves, leveraged trading activity, and historical market cycles.
Liquidity Flows: Bitcoin as the Final Destination
One of the most decisive drivers in today’s markets is liquidity. Following Federal Reserve rate cuts, institutional capital tends to move first into highly liquid assets like equities and gold. Crypto assets, on the other hand, typically receive capital inflows at a later stage of the cycle.
This isn’t new. Previous cycles have shown the same pattern: a short-term rally right after rate cuts, followed by corrections in traditional markets, and only then a delayed move where Bitcoin and Ethereum start gaining traction.
Stablecoin Reserves Show Weak Momentum
Another factor is the movement of stablecoins. While the overall supply of stablecoins is at record levels, exchange balances are shrinking. Instead of deploying stablecoins into centralized platforms, investors are increasingly using them for cross-chain bridging, private deals, or simply holding them on the sidelines.
This reduced inflow of stablecoins into exchanges slows down fresh liquidity entering crypto markets, limiting Bitcoin’s ability to build strong upward momentum.
Leverage and Hedging Pressure
Data from derivatives platforms reveal a growing preference for leveraged trades and hedging strategies rather than outright accumulation. This is common in range-bound environments, where traders aim to manage risk instead of betting on long-term upside.
Such positioning adds pressure on Bitcoin in the short run, keeping prices subdued even as other asset classes continue their rallies.
Bitcoin’s Delayed but Stronger Catch-Up
History suggests that Bitcoin tends to lag behind gold and equities before eventually playing catch-up. Analysts highlight that in the 30 days after equity markets peak, Bitcoin has historically gained around 12% on average. Over a 90-day period, that figure climbs to nearly 35%.
In the near term, however, challenges remain: ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), Treasury issuance draining liquidity, and looming options expiries could all weigh on price action. Still, the longer-term outlook remains favorable, with liquidity cycles expected to shift in crypto’s favor as traditional markets begin to lose momentum.
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