Ramazan Eles 
Coinbase is anticipated to witness a remarkable 89% increase in transaction revenue in the first quarter of 2024, projecting a staggering $1 billion, driven by a surge in Base revenue.
Messari, a leading cryptocurrency research firm, has released optimistic projections for Coinbase’s performance in Q1 2024. The firm’s Senior Research Analyst, Kunal Goel, spearheading the analysis, offered bullish forecasts. He boldly predicted an impressive 89% surge in Coinbase’s transaction revenue.
Estimates for Coinbase’s Q1 FY24 Earnings
According to the Messari report, Coinbase’s net revenue is set to soar to a massive $1.5 billion, marking an unprecedented 65% quarter-over-quarter growth. This exceptional performance follows a series of strong quarters where Coinbase consistently exceeded analyst expectations.
The surge in transaction revenue is expected to contribute to 66% of the net income. This growth is fueled by a substantial increase in trading volume, driven by the recent approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, pushing the market to new all-time highs. Messari’s estimates indicate that trading volume doubled in Q1.
Furthermore, Goel anticipates Coinbase surpassing Wall Street’s gross revenue estimates of $1.2 billion. Insights gleaned from ticker volume data highlight the significant role played by retail investors, expected to contribute 19% of the trading volume, thereby enhancing fee margins.
A major contributor to Coinbase’s revenue growth is its Layer 2 solution, Base. According to data from Token Terminal, Coinbase recorded a staggering revenue of $20.52 million from Base in March 2024, marking a fourfold increase from February’s income of approximately $5 million.
Detailed estimates from Messari outline the breakdown of Coinbase’s revenue streams:
Net revenue: $1.5 billion, representing a remarkable 65% increase quarter-over-quarter.
Transaction revenue: Expected to reach $1 billion, soaring by an astounding 89%.
Non-trading revenue: Projected to rise by 12%, showcasing diverse revenue streams.
Goel also emphasized Coinbase’s strategic positioning as a preferred partner for Traditional Finance (TradFi) firms and its role as a custodian for eight out of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase has demonstrated versatility and innovation through the successful launch of multiple on-chain products. Notably, the integration of Coinbase Wallet with Base enables seamless transactions, contributing to the recent surge in activity.