Ramazan Eles 
The value of Toncoin has been under pressure since the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on August 24th, leading to a significant decline. Currently trading at $5.38, TON has experienced a 9% drop in its price. Despite ongoing sales and profit-taking, a crucial on-chain indicator has hinted at a potential recovery, signaling that it might be a strategic time to buy. Analyzing the MVRV ratios across various moving averages suggests that Toncoin (TON) could present a buying opportunity.
What’s Happening with Toncoin?
According to data from Santiment, Toncoin’s 7-day and 30-day MVRV ratios stand at -5.71% and -9.10%, respectively. The MVRV metric compares an asset’s current market price to the average price of its circulating tokens. A negative MVRV ratio indicates that the asset is undervalued, meaning it is trading below the average acquisition cost of the tokens in circulation.
Historically, a negative MVRV ratio has been seen as a buying opportunity, allowing market participants to purchase assets at a lower price with the expectation of selling them later at a higher value. Additionally, TON’s futures market has shown resilience despite recent challenges.
The rising open interest in futures contracts and the positive funding rates across exchanges reflect a steady confidence among investors. Since Durov’s arrest, TON’s futures open interest has surged by 46%, reaching $345 million. Open interest measures the number of ongoing contracts, and an increase suggests growing participation from investors opening new positions.
However, spot investors in TON have become increasingly bearish since Durov’s arrest. The token’s technical indicators highlight an increase in selling pressure, overshadowing buying activity. For instance, TON’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows the positive directional indicator (+DI) below the negative directional indicator (-DI), pointing to a strong downtrend and intensified selling pressure.
Moreover, the token’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) emphasizes the downward momentum. Since Durov’s detention, TON’s RSI has fallen from a neutral 50 to 36.98, approaching the oversold territory, which indicates increased selling activity. If this selling pressure persists, TON’s value could drop further to $4.73. On the other hand, a bullish reversal might push the price up to $5.47.
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