Orhan 
Although Bitcoin (BTC) is making headlines with price predictions of $150,000 or more for 2025, on-chain data might suggest a different scenario. A new analysis warns that Bitcoin could be at risk of entering a multi-year downtrend. But how realistic are these concerns?
Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Reach Distribution Zone
A study published by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights that the Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Index (IBCI) has reached the distribution zone for the first time in eight months. This could indicate that the Bitcoin bull market might be coming to an end.
The IBCI is a combination of seven popular indicators used to understand Bitcoin’s price cycles. These indicators include:
- Puell Multiple: Tracks mining revenue for Bitcoin.
- Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): Shows realized profits and losses.
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Measures overall market sentiment.
Gaah, a CryptoQuant contributor, notes that not all these indicators have fully reached the historical distribution zone. However, their convergence suggests that the market may be nearing a peak.
Bitcoin Price Targets and Risks
The analysis shows that Bitcoin briefly entered the risk zone for peaks at the start of 2024, but this did not result in a bear market. In the long term, prices could potentially drop to the $90,000 range. However, in the short term, a new peak of $137,000 might still be on the table.
What Do Puell Multiple and Cycle Indicators Suggest?
The Puell Multiple remains below the critical threshold of “6,” indicating that the market hasn’t yet experienced a full peak. However, if the IBCI indicators reach 100%, a correction or a bear market may follow.
2025 Bitcoin Predictions: Could It Reach $1.5 Million?
Network economist Timothy Peterson suggests that Bitcoin could make a significant leap in the long run. According to him, BTC might hit $1.5 million by 2035. However, he also warns of potential price volatility along the way.
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