Ramazan Eles 
The four-year cycle has always played a crucial role in the strategies of seasoned crypto investors, and many are counting on its recurrence. While there’s no guarantee these cycles will repeat, that’s the hope. In his latest analysis, crypto expert John Osterman highlighted the correlation between Bitcoin halving events and market bottoms. Let’s dive into his perspective.
At $54,000, Bitcoin has been hovering in a range where lower prices seem to be the new norm, leading to further losses for investors. With a nearly $20,000 gap between the all-time high and the current price, Osterman suggests this rough patch may soon be over, drawing on historical data.
“Is this the worst Bitcoin cycle we’ve ever seen? No, it’s not.
In 2016, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks after the halving, Bitcoin was struggling near the red line base/support. This was a worse scenario.
In 2020, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks post-halving, Bitcoin was stuck between the green line linear regression and the red line base/support. Much like today.
Now in 2024, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks after the halving, Bitcoin is again positioned between the green line linear regression and red line base/support, just like 2020.”
Based on historical data, this cycle isn’t as unusual as it might seem. Despite six months of sideways movement, Osterman believes that an upward price movement is on the horizon.
Has Bitcoin Reached Its Bottom?
Many analysts had been forecasting a true market bottom for Q4, anticipating a recovery soon after. While the current decline may be frustrating, a halving-induced bottom this year could reinforce optimism for a rebound. The analyst known as Kyledoops, looking at short-term holder (STH) data, describes the situation not as a bear market or collapse but as one of uncertainty.
“Short-term investors are feeling the pinch from their growing unrealized losses, but we’re not in a full bear market just yet.
The overall picture resembles the 2019 volatility, pointing more toward uncertainty rather than an outright market crash.”
APSK32’s Outlook
Another analyst, known by the alias APSK32, shared his expectations and strategy for the near future:
“The Fed is lowering interest rates, the yield curve is inverted, altcoins are crushed, Bitcoin is stalled, and equities look vulnerable.
Recession? Whether it’s coming, or more importantly when, is something I don’t think anyone knows. The catalysts for triggering a recession are often random, and timing is everything. Since I don’t know when it might happen, I won’t be tempted to sell my Bitcoin in the hope of buying back at a lower price.
If prices dip, you might consider buying MSTR call options or trading on margin. Just keep in mind that any major macro event could disrupt patterns, levels, and timing. Consider setting aside a portion of your salary in Bitcoin and storing it in a cold wallet.”
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