Ramazan Eles 
According to a report by Coinbase, the cryptocurrency market could face certain short-term challenges despite positive factors like spot ETF inflows.
Even as Bitcoin (BTC) achieves new record highs, Coinbase (COIN) has cautioned that the cryptocurrency market may confront macro-level challenges and negative technical factors in the near future.
In a report released on Friday, analysts David Duong and David Han highlighted that while the initial upside was driven by short covering, this momentum appears to have waned. Nevertheless, the emergence of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continues to play a significant role in supporting bitcoin demand.
Unlike previous cycles where liquidity conditions posed the main obstacle to price momentum, the report indicates that this is no longer the case. However, the report emphasizes that positive support factors could face significant macro and technical headwinds in the upcoming weeks.
The report highlights the expected expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) by the Federal Reserve on March 11. This program, which aimed to support U.S. regional banks, may close an arbitrage opportunity for banks, potentially reintroducing vulnerabilities into the financial system.
Furthermore, the report suggests that a decrease in fund managers’ cash reserves, combined with quarter-end rebalancing, could lead to liquidity constraints.
Given these factors, Coinbase suggests that Bitcoin is likely to trade within a narrow range until the next significant event: the bitcoin halving in mid-April. The halving, which occurs every four years, will reduce bitcoin mining rewards by 50%.
Coinbase also points out that the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has altered Bitcoin’s market dynamics, making the study of previous halving cycles less relevant. According to the report, the cumulative net growth in BTC held by ETFs has exceeded that generated by miners by almost threefold.
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