Yahya 
Fidelity Digital Assets, one of the leading investment companies has made a lot of changes in their last Signals report and has provided a new outlook for Bitcoin both in the short run and in the medium term.
Medium-Term Caution
After the first quarter of 2024, Fidelity Digital Assets has changed its medium-term sentiment for Bitcoin to “neutral”. The analysis of the firm, using many different metrics, showed that the Bitcoin is now not cheap, possibly indicating that there might be some sell pressure building up in the market.
Throughout Q1, the Bitcoin Yardstick, which is similar to the Price-to-earnings ratio in stocks, stayed at between -1 and 0 deviations from the mean, suggesting that Bitcoin never become “cheap” during Q1. Fidelity proposed that Bitcoin has now reached “fair value,” forcing the change to a neutral positioning. Long-term holders sell pressure and all addresses being in the green potentially prompting selling are some of the factors influencing this shift.
On-chain metrics like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score further confirm a cautious approach of Fidelity, showing a potential overvaluation with respect to Bitcoin’s “fair value.”
Short-Term Positivity
Notwithstanding the amended medium-term perspective, Fidelity remains bullish on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. The company sees the possibility of short-term profit-taking but emphasizes that there are no extreme indicators usually observed during bull market tops.
Chris Kuiper, the director of research with Fidelity, underlined the bullish momentum revealed by price levels remaining above an important moving averages in the first quarter. Further, the realized price of Bitcoin, was around $28,000 at the end of Q1, has been a strong support level since mid-January.
Market Dynamics and Price Movement
On-chain data indicates persisting accumulation by smaller investors, with an increase in the number of addresses with large amounts of BTC. Further, decreasing exchange balances signify a prevailing tendency of self-custody among the investors that eases off the selling pressure in the market.
Since the end of February, Bitcoin moved sideward within the given levels, where $72,000 is a resistance and $60,000 is a support. Yet, after the weekend halving event, Bitcoin has risen by 5% hitting a ten-day high of $66,863.