Can Ahmet 
Bitcoin has fallen 14.5% from this month’s peak, dropping below $92,500 in December. This decline has dampened expectations for the traditional Santa Claus Rally, which typically occurs during holiday seasons in years following market cycle peaks.
What is the Santa Claus Rally?
The Santa Claus Rally refers to price increases in financial markets typically observed during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year. This phenomenon is attributed to year-end buying, market optimism, and low trading volumes. The crypto markets often experience similar price surges during this period.
Bitcoin’s December Performance
On December 23, Bitcoin fell to $92,442, marking its lowest level in the past four weeks. This represents a 14.5% drop from the peak of $108,000 reached on December 17. While Bitcoin briefly recovered to $95,000, it retreated to $94,036 as of December 24, losing more than 11% over the past week.
Historically, the crypto market has performed well during bull seasons and holiday periods. However, Bitcoin’s weak performance in December has reduced the likelihood of a Santa Claus Rally this year.
Cyclical Dynamics and Future Expectations
Unlike 2021, 2025 is expected to be the peak year of the current cycle. According to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle model, significant price movements typically occur during peak cycle years. As a result, stronger performances may be observed in 2024 and 2025.
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