Emre Yumlu 
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan: Bitcoin won’t “fully overcome” Four-Year Cycle, market pullbacks will be “shorter and shallower”
Matt Hougan, the investment chief at Bitwise, suggests that President Donald Trump’s January 23 crypto executive order could disrupt the four-year boom and bust cycle that the crypto market has seen over the last decade.
With Trump’s sweeping order and changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Hougan noted that “Bitcoin has fully entered the mainstream,” and banks and Wall Street could “aggressively enter the space.”
Hougan also pointed out that crypto exchange-traded funds are “big enough” to attract billions from new investors. However, he believes Trump’s executive order to explore creating a digital asset stockpile and draft a regulatory framework will bring in “trillions.”
Hougan Expects Shorter and Shallower Pullbacks for Bitcoin in 2026
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, with losses seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, but reaching new peaks in the three years between each pullback. If the cycle continues, the next pullback is expected in 2026.
Hougan stated that the industry will not “fully overcome” the four-year cycle, but he believes that “each pullback will be shorter and shallower than in previous years.”
“The crypto space has matured; there are more buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I don’t think I would bet against crypto in 2026,” Hougan added.
Bankruptcies from companies like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, BlockFi, and Celsius contributed to the 2022 market crash. Similarly, the SEC’s crackdown on token offerings and Mt. Gox’s collapse were two major catalysts behind pullbacks in previous cycles.
Hougan also noted that the full effect of Trump’s executive order will not be immediately visible, as White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to craft a regulatory framework. Additionally, Wall Street “behemoths” will require more time to fully grasp crypto’s potential.
Following the SEC’s cancellation of its Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 rule, which previously required financial firms to record crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets, Wall Street banks can now more easily custody crypto assets.
Hougan reiterated Bitwise’s Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000 by the end of 2025, stating that this could be achieved with or without a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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