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The fact that US employment rates fell well below expectations in October has led markets to almost certainly predict a 25 basis point cut from the Fed at its meeting on November 7. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, market participants expect a 99.5% rate cut, while the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged remains very low at 0.5%. According to this data, there is currently no expectation of a 50 basis point cut.
What Will Fed Do?
The US economy added only 12,000 new jobs in October. This figure fell well short of economists’ expectations of an increase of over 100,000. However, this low employment growth was not perceived by the market as a recession threat. US President Joe Biden stated that this low increase in the workforce was due to the major storm that hit the Florida coast and the strikes by dock workers. Biden stated that he expects employment rates to rise again in November.
These developments in the economy are also being closely monitored in the cryptocurrency market. While the unemployment rate was announced as 4.1%, Bitcoin prices were not directly affected by this development and continue to trade around $70,200.
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The decisions to be taken at the Fed meeting on November 7 will be an important signal for the continuation of the economic recovery and will show whether market participants’ interest rate expectations will be realized.
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