Deniz 
According to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, prediction markets help to foretell elections since polling has been less accurate over time.
Mansour noted in an interview, “Prediction markets work better; they really do.”
Unlike surveys that may take up to two weeks, prediction markets such as Kalshi provide real-time data, Mansour remarked. Over the years, election polls have had some miscalculations, particularly in the 2016 presidential contests when national surveys indicated Hillary Clinton would prevail and subsequently in 2020 in misjudging Donald Trump’s popularity. Based on coverage from CNBC, pollsters are using several techniques this year’s election to garner more accurate findings.
Mansour blamed polarizing and biased polls for the error. Regarding prediction markets, Mansour observed, “It’s much harder to lie when you have some money on the line.”
“You’re actually quite honest, and that’s why these markets work so well,” Mansour added.
This week Kalshi earned a significant victory after an appeals court authorized the prediction market to feature election betting. This comes around a year after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission declared that Kalshi engaged gaming and that its offering of election contracts was “contrary to the public interest.” Kalshi then filed a lawsuit.
Judge Jia M. Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said last month that when the CFTC objected to prediction market Kalshi’s bid to publish those contracts, it overreached itself. The agency then quickly appealed the decision, but it was finally overturned.
Right now, Kalshi lets users wager on which political party they think will hold the U.S. House or Senate. Mansour claimed Kalshi will set up a market on Thursday or Friday whereby individuals might stake money on who will win the U.S. presidential contest.
With around $1 billion in total wagers, Polymarket, a competitor blockchain-based betting market, has an open market for the approaching presidential election.
Regarding betting on the results of several political races, the CFTC has expressed worries about election integrity. Rob Schwartz, general counsel at the CFTC, argued last month at a hearing that betting on elections compromises electoral integrity. Though not yet implemented, the government also has rulemaking under progress that suggests prohibiting political event bets.
Mansour terms the CFTC’s worries “baseless.” He argued changing election perception was “mechanically impossible.” For instance, if someone spends millions of dollars misleading the public about a candidate, it might cause the price one to two percentages to shift, but arbitrageurs would bring it back in minutes.
“These markets actually bring more truths to the system,” Mansour remarked. “They surpass polls.”
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