Deniz 
Predicting markets Kalshi can go ahead and publish contracts to facilitate election betting, a federal appeals court decided.
Judge Patricia Millett decided in a decision posted on Wednesday in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission lacked proof of the “public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal.”
Millett penned, “The administrative stay is hereby dissolved.”
Millett also said the agency’s application for a stay is “denied without prejudice,” meaning the case is dismissed but lets the plaintiff refile going forward. Given U.S. elections just one month away, it’s not obvious whether contracts have returned to Kalshi’s website. Kalshi did not reply right away to a comment request.
Event markets, like Kalshi, let players gamble on the result of forthcoming events—including the forthcoming U.S. elections or even on the release of specific Taylor Swift albums. Chair Rostin Behnam of the CFTC has cautioned of a “significant increase” in event contracts posted for trade on exchanges regulated with the CFTC since 2021.
Since the agency said Kalshi could not provide contracts pertaining to “congressional control contracts,” the CFTC and Kalshi have engaged in litigation since late last year. Last month, Judge Jia M. Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia decided that the CFTC overreached itself in reacting against the prediction market Kalshi’s decision to list contracts connected to American elections. The agency swiftly appealed the decision as well.
Regarding Wednesday, Judge Millett also addressed issues raised by the CFTC regarding congressional contract regulation. Earlier, Behnam claimed letting the contracts would “push the CFTC, a financial market regulator, into a position far beyond its Congressional mandate and expertise.”
Millet said, “Though the Commission would be authorized to investigate suspected manipulation, it could also draw on the expertise of other federal agencies or refer suspected violations to those agencies.”
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