Yigit Taha OZTURK 
Prediction markets are sounding the alarm after President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
According to Kalshi, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have jumped to 61%, nearly double from March 20. The platform defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, using official data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Similarly, traders on Polymarket now price the probability of a 2025 US recession at around 60%.
Market Chaos and Recession Fears
Trump’s move sparked a sharp sell-off in capital markets, wiping over $5 trillion in shareholder value within days. Market analysts now warn of a prolonged bear market affecting global markets and depressing prices across risk assets — including cryptocurrencies.
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Despite this, Trump insists the tariffs will ultimately benefit the US economy. On April 3, he said, “The markets are going to boom,” describing the sell-off as an expected part of the process.
Rates Under Pressure
Asset manager Anthony Pompliano speculated that Trump may be intentionally crashing the markets to influence interest rates. He pointed to the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields from 4.66% in January to 4.00% on April 5.
In an April 4 Truth Social post, Trump called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to take action: “This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.”
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