Deniz 
Following the presidential debate on Tuesday night, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the next November election on crypto-based prediction site Polymarket climbed. Currently on Polymarket’s $860 million market, Harris and former president Donald Trump are tied.
Before the election, Tuesday night witnessed the first and most likely last presidential discussion between Harris and Trump, whereby several recurring issues, including the war in Gaza and abortion rights, were debated, with no reference to cryptocurrency. Polls, which are yet unpublished, show that Polymarket’s beters on Harris had a 94% chance of winning tonight’s debate.
On Polymarket, Harris’s chances of winning the presidential contest jumped from 46% Monday night to 49%; Trump’s chances dropped from 52% to 49%. While Harris has begun interacting with the crypto space, Trump has been outspoken in voicing pro-crypto viewpoints; she has not yet taken a firm position on the sector.
Bitcoin sank to lows of roughly $56,700 throughout the discussion, but momentarily rose above the $58,000 mark and stayed at higher levels in the hours preceding the debate. Right now, it trades for $56,503.
Head of APAC business development of cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock Justin d’Anethan claimed that as the argument progressed, bitcoin was more of a dispassionate observer. “The crypto market is watching but not reacting—at least, not yet. Bitcoin continues to behave like any other risk asset, moving in tandem with tech stocks and growth equities, searching for direction amidst a cocktail of inflation fears, rate uncertainty, and global political turbulence.”
“The debate itself is surely a momentous event that shapes the tone for the probably conflict between two different visions of America’s future,” d’Anethan said. “For bitcoin, though, it will need something more concrete. As things stand, bitcoin seems to be waiting for a catalyst—a jolt from either the macroeconomic front, like an unexpected change in Fed policy, or something seismic from the political arena, such as a scandal or a surprising turn in election polling.”
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