Emre Yumlu 
Global markets are focused on two critical data from the US today. What will be the impact of these data, which will be released at 12:30 UTC?
Today at 12:30 UTC, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment Claims data will be released. It can determine the short-term direction of risky assets, especially cryptocurrency markets.
US CPI Data
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Expectation: 2.5%
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Previous: 2.8%
US inflation continues to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy in recent months. A CPI reading below expectations (below 2.5%) would signal that disinflation is ongoing. This could be interpreted as giving the Fed more room to cut interest rates, potentially increasing risk appetite across markets. As a result, upward movements may be observed in cryptocurrencies, equities, and gold.
On the other hand, if CPI comes in above expectations (above 2.5%), it would indicate that inflationary pressures are still present. This would strengthen the narrative that the Fed may remain cautious about rate cuts, possibly triggering selling pressure across markets.
US Initial Jobless Claims
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Expectation: 223,000
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Previous: 219,000
Jobless claims are a key leading indicator of the health of the US labor market. A figure below expectations would suggest continued strength in the job market, reinforcing the Fed’s stance of keeping interest rates higher for longer. This scenario could be negative for rate-sensitive assets, such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, if claims exceed expectations, it may point to early signs of labor market weakness. That could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone, which would likely be perceived positively by the markets.
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