Emre Yumlu 
Markets in uncertainty ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariffs and US ADP non-farm employment data; volatility may rise.
Markets in Uncertainty Ahead of April 2 Tariffs and US ADP Non-Farm Employment Data
Markets are awaiting President Trump’s speech at 22:00 today, as his new tariffs come into effect, increasing uncertainty in global markets. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that these tariffs could lead to higher inflation and economic slowdown. While a rate cut by the Fed is expected in June, the possibility of three cuts by year-end is gaining traction in the markets.
Trump signed an executive order to establish a new office aimed at encouraging companies investing over $1 billion in the US. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.20%, while gold tested $3,149.
The European Union has stated its readiness to retaliate strongly against the tariffs. Japan and China are planning discussions at the G20 about the potential impact of the tariffs on global trade.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Data to be Released Today: Markets Await
The US ADP Non-Farm Employment data, due for release at 15:15 today, is of critical importance for the markets.
- Forecast: 118K
- Previous: 77K
This data will provide important insights into the health of the US labor market. A result above expectations could signal a stronger labor market, increasing the likelihood of the Fed delaying rate cuts. Conversely, a result below expectations may signal economic slowdown, strengthening the case for rate cuts.
Following the release, volatility in the dollar, gold, and stocks is expected to rise.
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