Ramazan Eles 
Matrixport, a leading cryptocurrency analysis firm, has projected when Bitcoin’s condition might start to improve.
According to Matrixport’s latest report, the fourth quarter of 2024 holds a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Despite the challenges faced in the third quarter, Bitcoin’s trading range has narrowed, setting the stage for a potential breakout. This optimism is attributed to anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, favorable seasonal factors, and the upcoming US presidential elections.
The report notes that while the Federal Reserve (FED) has not changed interest rates, FED Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that a rate cut might be possible in the September meeting if inflation follows the predicted path. Matrixport’s inflation model forecasts a gradual decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the next year. The possibility of several quarter-point rate cuts in the coming quarters could provide liquidity and incentives for risky assets like Bitcoin.
With current interest rates at 5.25% and the inflation rate at 3%, the gap reflects the FED’s restrictive policy. According to the report, this indicates that the FED might significantly reduce interest rates over the next twelve months, which could benefit Bitcoin.
Matrixport’s report also highlights the seasonal challenges Bitcoin typically faces in August and September. Historically, these months see low trading volumes due to the summer holiday period and traders awaiting economic indicators and central bank policy decisions in the fall, leading to steady returns and weak performance.
The report suggests that the US presidential elections could bring positive news for Bitcoin. If former President Donald Trump is re-elected, his administration might adopt a more favorable regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies, reducing regulatory uncertainties and promoting innovation. Trump’s recent attendance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference was well-received, although he did not outline specific plans for a Bitcoin reserve.
By focusing on these key factors, Matrixport’s analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s potential recovery and the broader market dynamics influencing it.