Deniz 
Polymarket traders are betting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set for September 17–18, 2024, would lower the federal funds rate.
A bet with $10.9 million volume reflects this attitude: 77% of traders expect a 25 basis point drop as the most likely result; 21% prefer a 50 basis point reduction; only 3% think there won’t be a rate cut.
Many elements influence expectations for a rate drop: a drop in inflation strengthens the case for a rate reduction; a worsening employment market shows the necessity of more favorable economic policies.
These findings coincide with the twin goal of the Federal Reserve to strike a balance between management of inflation and economic development. Although most experts agree on a 25 basis point cut, should the state of the economy deteriorate enough, a more significant drop could be in hand.
Forecasts of a reduction in Bitcoin price volatility by analysts abound. They expect that players in the market are getting ready for the probably start of a rate-cutting cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month.
Over the past year, Polymarket has grown in relevance among the crypto scene. Leveraging crypto tokens to purchase and sell shares, traders gamble on the platform to forecast different results. The cumulative volume of the platform shows this increase in activity: $1 billion in July to $1.52 billion by the end of August.
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