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Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based predictions platform, is increasing efforts to ensure that users placing large bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election are located outside the United States. This action comes after concerns surfaced that some U.S. residents might be bypassing platform restrictions by using virtual private networks (VPNs). U.S. residents are prohibited from participating in Polymarket, prompting the platform to reassess its compliance checks, especially for high-value wagers.
Currently, Polymarket’s odds favor Donald Trump with a 63.7% chance of winning the election, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 36.2%. These odds, however, contrast sharply with traditional polls such as a Reuters survey, which shows Harris leading Trump at 46% to 43%. The influx of pro-Trump bets, particularly from whales like the user “Fredi9999,” who has wagered over $20 million on Republican outcomes, has raised questions about potential market manipulation.
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Polymarket’s competitor, Kalshi, also shows Trump leading Harris with 60% odds. Kalshi’s founder, Tarek Mansour, defends the platform’s results, stating that the betting activity is balanced. Despite these claims, investor Mark Cuban emphasized that most of the funds for Polymarket’s election market come from foreign sources, potentially skewing the odds. Polymarket previously settled a $1.4 million case with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for regulatory non-compliance.
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