Emre Yumlu 
Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the need to be cautious in an environment of uncertainty, drawing attention to the risks of tariffs on inflation and growth.
Critical Messages from Powell on Tariffs and the Economy: “Uncertainty Seems to Continue”
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made important statements about tariffs and the economic outlook that have been on the agenda in recent days. According to Powell, increasing tariffs have the potential to both increase inflationary pressures and slow down economic growth. These developments have made the risks that the US economy may face in the coming period more clear.
Powell emphasized that it is “too early” for the Fed to determine the appropriate step in monetary policy in the current economic environment. He stated that the healthiest position for the Fed is to wait for more clarity under current conditions. Powell, who especially drew attention to the fact that newly implemented tariffs may have permanent effects on inflation, emphasized that this process may not be limited to short-term price increases.
What Will Be the Economic Effects of Tariffs?
Powell, who said that the economic effects of the tariffs could go beyond initial estimates, reminded that one of the Fed’s fundamental duties is to prevent such price increases from turning into permanent inflation. The Chairman also stated that people expect the Fed to hear the truth and that they will continue to be transparent in order to fulfill this responsibility.
It was also mentioned that although the Fed does not officially expect a recession, external analyses increase the possibility of a recession. Powell predicts that the current economic environment will remain uncertain and, with his comment that “it is the right time to take a step back and wait for the water to calm down,” he points out that a patient and cautious approach is needed.
These statements may cause markets to make more cautious pricing in the upcoming period. The Fed’s monitoring of developments instead of a rapid change in interest rate policies reveals its desire to display a more balanced stance against the effects of imbalances in the global economy.
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