Deniz 
Even if the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETF) negative odds, some analysts believe there is still potential for surprise.
“If by some chance the SEC decides to approve, then so many will be caught severely offside,” bitcoin trader Matthew Hyland wrote in a May 17 post to his 142,000 X followers.
“Who will actually be selling if 90% of people think the Ether ETF will be denied and most of those people think it will cause a crypto crash?” “Priced in,” he said, is the expectation of denial. CoinMarketCap statistics show that Ether is trading at $3,136 at the time of publication.
Crypto prediction site Polymarket reports that while the larger crypto community has set their forecasts closer to the 7% mark, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has set his probability for approval at 35%.
“There is room for surprise to the upside on this decision,” says David Han, an institutional research analyst at the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.
Han said in Coinbase’s May 15 monthly outlook report, “We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30–40%.”
Han said that the SEC will be less likely to stick to its denial judgment as cryptocurrency becomes a bigger concern for voters in the run-up to the November US presidential election.
“It’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial as cryptocurrency begins to take shape as an election issue,” he said.
Han further contended that there is a good chance that litigation might reverse the judgment even if the VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications are rejected before the original deadline of May 23.