Ramazan Eles 
Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event could trigger unexpected price volatility, according to Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. This uncertainty stems from the growing influence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on demand, potentially outpacing the supply decrease caused by the halving.
Halving to Reduce Supply, But Demand Surge May Counteract
Ardoino, speaking at a Bitfinex online event, highlighted the already high demand for Bitcoin surpassing current mining output. While the halving will cut miner rewards in half, it’s important to note that most Bitcoins have already been mined.
Tether (USDT), the dominant stablecoin for Bitcoin trading, has a market cap of $103 billion. The next halving, expected in April, will reduce the miner reward from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: A New Demand Driver
Currently, Bitcoin mining produces an average of 900 BTC daily. Post-halving, this will fall to 450 BTC. However, some spot Bitcoin ETF issuers are experiencing daily inflows exceeding these figures. BlackRock, for example, reported a single-day inflow of 4,886 BTC (approximately $345 million).
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, estimates that spot Bitcoin ETFs were absorbing roughly 2,800 BTC daily by February’s end, significantly impacting recent price trends. This surge in demand could potentially offset the supply reduction caused by the halving, leading to unpredictable price movements.
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