Yigit Taha OZTURK 
Ahead of the upcoming elections in the United States, significant changes have emerged in predictions regarding former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning. Data from prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi indicate that Trump’s odds have dropped by 10%. This notable decline has sparked new debates among investors.
Expectations for Trump Have Declined on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are known as platforms where users can speculate and place bets on political events. On these platforms, Trump’s chances of winning, which peaked in recent weeks, have now experienced a 10% decline. Experts suggest that this change could be attributed to various factors.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump’s odds of victory have dropped over 10% from their all-time highs. On Polymarket, his peak rate of 71.5% on July 16 has fallen to 59.1%, while on Kalshi, his highest value of 65.2% on October 29 has decreased to 55%. (Kalshi’s prediction market became available on October 4.)
‘Whale’ Investor: “I Have No Political Agenda”
During this process, a prominent investor has drawn attention by emphasizing that the trades made in favor of Trump on the platforms are not connected to any political agenda. Typically referred to as “whales,” large investors can wield significant influence in the markets by using substantial amounts of capital. However, this investor argues that the trades are solely aimed at financial gain and do not have any political motives.
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Uncertainty Reigns in the Markets
With increasing uncertainties surrounding the election process in the upcoming period, fluctuations in predictions regarding Trump’s chances of winning are anticipated. This situation could lead to more speculation and volatility in the markets. Analysts point out that Trump’s odds in prediction markets may continue to fluctuate based on political developments in the coming weeks.
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