Can Ahmet 
The first quarter of 2025 represents a pivotal period for Bitcoin, with two significant factors poised to influence its price trajectory: the Federal Reserve‘s expansionary monetary policy and regulatory uncertainties surrounding the new Trump administration.
Federal Reserve Liquidity Injection Could Support Bitcoin
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggests that an additional $612 billion in liquidity to the U.S. Treasury during Q1 2025 could counterbalance concerns about cryptocurrency regulations. In his January 7 blog post, Hayes stated:
“A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter.”
Impact of the Trump Administration
While Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 is generally viewed as positive for the cryptocurrency industry, potential delays in regulatory implementation may affect investor sentiment. Hayes emphasized this potential market impact, noting:
“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has at best one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades”
Positive Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook
Despite potential regulatory disappointments, analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Market experts project that an anticipated $20 trillion increase in global money supply could direct $2 trillion in investments toward Bitcoin. This substantial capital inflow could potentially drive Bitcoin to exceed $150,000 by the end of 2025.
The interplay between monetary policy and regulatory developments will likely shape Bitcoin’s performance throughout 2025, with the market balancing short-term uncertainties against promising long-term fundamentals.
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