Yigit Taha OZTURK 
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI data for November, crucial indicators of U.S. inflation, were released today and came in as expected. This alignment with forecasts underscores stability in the U.S. economy and offers hints about the Federal Reserve’s next moves on monetary policy.
Key Figures
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Monthly increase of 0.3% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%).
- Headline CPI: Monthly rise of 0.3%, with a yearly increase of 2.7% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%).
The results indicate that inflationary pressures remain subdued, particularly in non-energy and non-food categories. The slight uptick in annual inflation suggests stability but signals that inflation has not yet fully returned to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Federal Reserve’s Policy Outlook
These figures reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting. However, the annual inflation rate hovering at 2.7% may delay the possibility of rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated that achieving the 2% inflation target is a prerequisite before considering easing monetary policy.
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Markets responded moderately to the data, with no major swings in volatility.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady, reflecting the neutral sentiment.
- Stock markets saw a slight boost, fueled by optimism that the Fed may pause its rate hikes.
- Treasury yields saw minimal movement, with longer-term yields pulling back slightly, signaling caution among fixed-income investors.
Economic Implications
The alignment of inflation data with forecasts suggests a steady economic environment, which may enhance global risk appetite. As the Federal Reserve plays a pivotal role in global monetary trends, the stable U.S. inflation trajectory could positively impact European and Asian markets by reducing uncertainty.
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