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Kalshi, a derivatives exchange, has launched legal betting contracts for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, becoming the first platform in the U.S. to offer this service following a significant court victory. After prevailing in a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi is now permitted to offer event contracts tied to U.S. political outcomes.
These contracts, often referred to as binary options, allow participants to bet on specific election-related outcomes such as presidential nominees, state winners, and Senate seat results. Kalshi’s move comes just weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, creating a new market for political betting.
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Despite Kalshi’s court win, the CFTC expressed concerns, claiming that such election markets could undermine the integrity of elections. However, proponents argue that prediction markets like Kalshi can provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment than traditional polling.
Kalshi is currently playing catch-up to Polymarket, a leading Web3-based election betting platform, which has reportedly seen over $1 billion in volume. Kalshi, by contrast, has so far attracted $775,000 in volume. With the court rulings allowing election betting in place, Kalshi’s entry could mark the start of a broader trend in political event trading.
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