Ramazan Eles 
Bitcoin price remains stubbornly below the $100,000 mark, and renowned crypto analyst Charles Edwards has shed light on the underlying reasons.
In a recent discussion, Edwards delved into the factors holding Bitcoin back from breaching the six-figure barrier. He began his analysis by highlighting the significant role of US Bitcoin ETFs. Since their mid-January launch, these ETFs have witnessed a remarkable 200% buy rate relative to newly minted Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin’s price surging 50% to $71,000 since the ETF debut, many remain perplexed as to why prices haven’t climbed higher.
Edwards pointed to a challenging force the market is currently grappling with: long-term wallet selling. The share of ‘hodlers’ – individuals holding Bitcoin for over two years – in total supply has declined from an all-time high of 57% in December 2023 to 54% today. While a 3% drop may not seem substantial, it represents approximately 630,000 BTC, roughly 300% of the total amount bought by all US Bitcoin ETFs this year.
As observed in previous cycles, Edwards noted that selling into price rallies is a typical behavior. A significant portion of this selling is from Grayscale’s ETF transitioning to new ETFs, further amplifying the decline.
Edwards then shifted his focus to the yet-unseen effects of the BTC halving. With the daily BTC issuance cut by 50% in April, he anticipates the gap between ETF consumption and mined Bitcoin to widen next year. He further pointed out that institutions’ review, signing, and allocation processes span across quarters, suggesting that large ETF inflows are likely still on the horizon.
Another crucial factor to consider, according to Edwards, is the time of year. June is typically a period of market lull, with many large asset managers adopting a risk-off stance.
Perhaps the most critical factor, as Edwards sees it, is the flat and slightly negative trend in USD Liquidity since Bitcoin’s March peak. When the liquidity tap tightens, risk assets face an uphill battle.
For a strong price surge, Edwards believes we need to see at least one of the following:
Higher average daily ETF buying
Lower long-term wallet selling
Growth in USD liquidity
Edwards concluded his analysis on an optimistic note, expecting these conditions to materialize in the coming months, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to breach the elusive $100,000 barrier.