Emre Yumlu 
U.S. Government’s commitment to selling only altcoins from new Digital Asset Stockpile threatens XRP bullish outlook.
As of March 8, XRP is facing technical and fundamental pressures, suggesting a potential 20% price drop in the near future. Based on recent market analyses and historical patterns, investors should pay attention to three key signals.
XRP’s Symmetrical Triangle: 20% Downside Risk
XRP/USD is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on its weekly chart, a pattern reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Symmetrical triangles are not always bullish continuation patterns; they typically resolve with a breakout in either direction based on prevailing momentum.
Historically, such setups have often led to declines; for example, Ethereum’s triangle breakdown in 2018 resulted in an 80% drop. If a breakout occurs, the price could move toward the maximum height of the triangle. For XRP, this would bring the downside target to around $1.46, which aligns with the 50-week exponential moving average.
Trump Supports Bitcoin, Excludes XRP
XRP’s price dropped following the White House’s Crypto Summit on March 7, as expectations of its inclusion in the U.S. strategic crypto reserve faded. President Trump’s team clarified that cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP were only examples, not official selections. There is no evidence that the U.S. government holds XRP, and Trump’s broader altcoin strategy excludes new purchases. This announcement led to a 10% decline in XRP. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is favored by the Trump administration, with the U.S. holding approximately $17.7 billion in BTC.
XRP’s Price Drop Risk: Technical and Fundamental Factors
XRP is consolidating in a historical distribution zone, and the XRP/BTC pair remains above the 200-2W EMA at around 2,459 satoshis. A break below the 200-2W EMA could pull XRP/BTC towards the 50-2W EMA at 1,700 satoshis, increasing the risk of a 20% drop in XRP/USD.
XRP’s trading volume mirrors the 2021 bear market. XRP is currently in a distribution phase, with large investors offloading positions to retail buyers. This surge in volume follows a 600% rise from November 2024 to January 2025, marking a typical distribution setup. A similar volume explosion in 2021 preceded a prolonged downtrend. If history repeats, XRP may face another major correction.
The decline in XRP whale holdings further reinforces the distribution. Whale sales signal a lack of confidence in short-term performance, and these sales can reduce liquidity, pushing smaller investors to sell as well and increasing selling pressure.
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