Emre Yumlu 
As October approaches, one of the biggest questions for crypto investors is whether the long-anticipated “Uptober” rally will materialize this year. Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months — but this week’s sharp market pullback has cast doubt on that narrative.
October: A Historically Bullish Month
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has posted gains in 10 out of the past 12 Octobers since 2013. This track record earned the month its nickname, “Uptober.” The last time Bitcoin recorded a loss in October was back in 2018, when the asset dropped by 3.8%.
In bull market years, October rallies have been especially strong:
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2017: +48% gain
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2021: +40% gain
If a similar performance occurs this year, Bitcoin could potentially surge toward $165,000 from its current levels.
Rate Cut Speculation and Liquidity Outlook
Investor Kyle Chassé pointed out that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have climbed to 92%, based on CME futures. He argued that easing monetary policy is already priced in and that additional liquidity could serve as critical fuel for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.
Meanwhile, analyst Sykodelic suggested that markets may first dip lower before a strong October rebound. They highlighted $112,500 as a key level, suggesting that once reached, the path to new highs and the next euphoric phase could open up.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed this liquidity narrative, noting that once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) — which recently surpassed $850 billion — finishes replenishment, the “up only” phase could resume.
Not Everyone Is Convinced
Despite the optimism surrounding “Uptober,” some analysts remain cautious. Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, warned that low implied volatility, weak inflow momentum, and profit-taking behavior could limit the scale of any potential rally. He emphasized that long-term investors may need to wait longer before seeing new all-time highs.
Similarly, BTSE COO Jeff Mei expressed skepticism, pointing to macroeconomic uncertainty and September’s relatively stable markets as reasons why this year’s Uptober rally may not play out as expected. However, he added that a more aggressive Fed stimulus plan could shift sentiment.
Current Market Snapshot
Crypto markets started the week with heavy losses. The total market capitalization shrank by $80 billion within hours, as Bitcoin slid to a 12-day low of $114,270.
Ethereum also felt the pressure, losing over 4% and falling below $4,300, marking its lowest point in two weeks.
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