Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) wallets have dropped to the lowest levels since April. As long-term investors reduce their supply, BTC faces potential downside risk toward $68,000.
Why It Matters
The decline in LTH supply increases market sensitivity to short-term selling pressure and directly influences investor behavior.
Bitcoin LTH Supply Changes
According to Glassnode, long-term holders decreased their Bitcoin holdings from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July to 14.3 million BTC in December. This reduced the percentage of supply held by these investors to 71.92%, a level last seen in April. At that time, Bitcoin fell from its $109,000 all-time high to $74,000. LTHs increased their supply to 76% at lower prices in July, driving a 65% rally to $123,000.
CryptoQuant data shows that on a 30-day rolling basis, supply fell by 1.1 million BTC on November 26, the second-largest drop on record. Over the last 30 days, LTH supply decreased by 761,000 coins, while whales sold $2.78 billion in BTC, keeping downward pressure in place.
Bitcoin Outperforms Altcoins Over Past Three Months
What Is LTH Supply?
“LTH supply” refers to the total amount of coins held by long-term holders (LTH) and their share of total circulating supply.
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LTH (Long-Term Holder): Someone or a wallet holding crypto for at least 155 days.
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Supply: Total coins in circulation.
Example:
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Bitcoin total supply: 21 million BTC
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LTH holdings: 15 million BTC → LTH supply = 71.4%
The chart below, based on Capriole Investments data, illustrates this decline.
Could BTC Fall Below $70,000?
Bitcoin’s technical structure weakened after losing the 50-week moving average and the yearly open at $93,300. BTC/USD confirmed a bear flag below $92,000. Key support lies between $83,800 and $80,500. Breaking this zone could trigger a drop toward $68,500, with the 200-week MA providing support.
Bitcoin price movements were analyzed by our Coinmühendisi analyst. Bitcoin failed to break the $90,500 resistance and retreated to its support area. The current demand zone is 3.5% wide, with possible pullback to $83,800. A safe recovery would require price to surpass $90,500. Short-term traders can reduce risk by following bullish breakouts on lower timeframes.
Behavioral Analysis
LTH selling indicates rising investor fear and weakening market sentiment. This strengthens short-term selling pressure while creating potential dip-buying opportunities for strategic investors.
Summary List:
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LTH supply dropped to 71.92%, April levels
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761,000 BTC exited LTH wallets in 30 days
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Whales sold $2.78B BTC in last 30 days
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Key support: $83,800 and $80,500
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Potential downside target: $68,500
This content is based solely on market data, on-chain analysis, and technical indicators. It is not investment advice. Investment decisions should be made based on your own research and risk management strategies.
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