Emre Yumlu 
Following the recent turbulence in the crypto markets, economist Timothy Peterson shared an eye-catching analysis based on Bitcoin’s historical performance. According to Peterson, price drops of more than 5% in October are extremely rare — and when they do occur, they are often followed by strong rebounds.
Sharp October Drops Are Rare — But Often Lead to Powerful Recoveries
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), economist Timothy Peterson noted that Bitcoin has only fallen more than 5% in October four times in the past decade — specifically in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.
During those periods, Bitcoin recovered 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019 within just one week.
The only exception was 2021, when the crypto asset extended its decline by another 3% instead of rebounding.
“Uptober” Returns: Historically One of Bitcoin’s Strongest Months
Among crypto investors, October is often dubbed “Uptober” — a month historically known for delivering strong positive returns for Bitcoin.
According to CoinGlass data, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, bringing an average return of 20.10%.
November tops the list with an impressive 46.02% average gain, making the fourth quarter traditionally bullish for the market.
If History Repeats, Bitcoin Could Return to $124,000
Peterson’s remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, which triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $102,000.
Shortly after, Bitcoin managed to recover to $112,468, following a brief dip just days after reaching a new all-time high of $125,100.
If Bitcoin mirrors its 2019 pattern, when the price surged 21% after a similar drop, the current setup could push the asset back toward $124,000 within the next week.
Optimism Remains Strong Among Bitcoin Supporters
Despite the recent pullback, many leading Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the broader uptrend will continue.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, posted on X:
“There are still 21 days left in Uptober.”
Similarly, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, described the current price movement as “the bottom of the current cycle.”
He compared it to the COVID-19 crash, which marked the previous cycle’s low, suggesting that history may once again be repeating itself.
Some analysts even offered a longer-term view. The pseudonymous investor The Bitcoin Libertarian commented:
“In a few years, Bitcoin will drop from $1 million to $800,000 in a few hours — and we’ll all be talking about another record liquidation event. Let history repeat.”
*This content does not contain investment advice.
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