Rally Interrupted

In early October, Bitcoin surged past the $114,000–$117,000 resistance range to reach a new all-time high above $126,000. According to Glassnode, the rally was driven by strong spot ETF inflows and renewed buying activity from mid-sized investors.

Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best months. Data shows the cryptocurrency has averaged over 46% returns in October since 2013. Yet this year, the trend took an unexpected turn. On October 11, the market witnessed the largest single-day liquidation event in history — around $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, sending BTC tumbling to nearly $102,000 before a mild recovery.

Liquidity and Leverage Pressure

Analysts note that the sell-off wasn’t caused by selling pressure alone. A lack of market depth made the price drop much sharper. A mid-October report from Kaiko highlighted how “panic-driven trading exposed a severe liquidity gap across BTC order books,” with some exchanges appearing nearly empty for several minutes during the crash.

K33 Research, however, views the liquidation as a reset rather than a collapse. Analysts there argue that excessive leverage has now been cleared out, creating a healthier market structure. They suggest that the coming weeks could provide “a favorable environment for capital deployment” as funding rates and derivatives normalize.

Can Uptober Still Recover?

Before the crash, Glassnode reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted over $2.2 billion in inflows, signaling that institutional appetite remains strong.

In the end, this year’s Uptober illustrates two key realities: institutional flows can lift the market significantly, but a single liquidity shock can wipe out progress in hours. Whether October finishes strong will depend on how quickly market makers and institutional investors rebuild liquidity depth. If they do, Uptober might still close on a bullish note.

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Sharp October Drops Are Rare — But Often Lead to Powerful Recoveries

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), economist Timothy Peterson noted that Bitcoin has only fallen more than 5% in October four times in the past decade — specifically in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.

During those periods, Bitcoin recovered 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019 within just one week.
The only exception was 2021, when the crypto asset extended its decline by another 3% instead of rebounding.

“Uptober” Returns: Historically One of Bitcoin’s Strongest Months

Among crypto investors, October is often dubbed “Uptober” — a month historically known for delivering strong positive returns for Bitcoin.

According to CoinGlass data, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, bringing an average return of 20.10%.
November tops the list with an impressive 46.02% average gain, making the fourth quarter traditionally bullish for the market.

If History Repeats, Bitcoin Could Return to $124,000

Peterson’s remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, which triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $102,000.

Shortly after, Bitcoin managed to recover to $112,468, following a brief dip just days after reaching a new all-time high of $125,100.

If Bitcoin mirrors its 2019 pattern, when the price surged 21% after a similar drop, the current setup could push the asset back toward $124,000 within the next week.

Optimism Remains Strong Among Bitcoin Supporters

Despite the recent pullback, many leading Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the broader uptrend will continue.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, posted on X:

“There are still 21 days left in Uptober.”

Similarly, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, described the current price movement as “the bottom of the current cycle.”
He compared it to the COVID-19 crash, which marked the previous cycle’s low, suggesting that history may once again be repeating itself.

Some analysts even offered a longer-term view. The pseudonymous investor The Bitcoin Libertarian commented:

“In a few years, Bitcoin will drop from $1 million to $800,000 in a few hours — and we’ll all be talking about another record liquidation event. Let history repeat.”

*This content does not contain investment advice.

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Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Phenomenon: Historically Strong Performance

October has long been dubbed “Uptober” in the crypto community, as historical data shows this month often brings significant price surges. This year is no exception; Bitcoin’s momentum has not only fueled itself but also sparked capital flow toward older altcoins. Historical trends confirm this month as one of the brightest periods for bull markets.

Investor Behavior: Low Profit-Taking for Bitcoin

According to recent analyses, Bitcoin holders earned a total of $30 billion in profits over the past 30 days. This figure is well below July’s $63 billion peak and significantly lower than the $78–99 billion seen in March and December 2024. Long-term holders’ (LTH) average realized profit margin stands at 129%, far below the 300% threshold that typically signals market exhaustion. This suggests investors remain bullish and aren’t rushing to sell.

Support Signals from Derivatives Markets

Movements in the options market further bolster the optimistic outlook. According to researcher Adam Chu, call options between $120,000 and $140,000 are among the most actively traded contracts, with the $120,000 level being a key concentration point. Low gamma levels among market makers mean minor price swings aren’t causing major disruptions. The $110,000 level forms a strong support line, while new highs could trigger accelerated buying.

Expert Opinions: Positive Q4 Outlook

Adam Chu emphasizes that institutional players are also optimistic about this period: “I predict market conditions will remain positive throughout October. Many experienced institutional investors see the final quarter as promising.” Bitcoin’s rally is supported by long-term holders’ restraint and bullish positions from derivatives professionals. Even with short-term pullbacks, the overall trend appears upward.

These insights suggest Bitcoin’s October rally still has breathing room. Cautious optimism may be the key strategy for investors.

This content is not investment advice.

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Why Is September Always Harsh on Bitcoin?

Historical data shows that September tends to bring losses to the crypto market. On average, Bitcoin investors see around 6% declines during this month. While many expected 2025 to defy the trend, the promising early gains quickly vanished.

It’s not just retail investors exiting the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw four consecutive days of outflows, amounting to $1.13 billion pulled out, while Ethereum ETFs recorded another $795.8 million in withdrawals during the same period.

Still, history suggests that periods of panic can also present buying opportunities for larger players.

Bearish Setup or Imminent Breakout?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing short-term weakness. The price fell below the 200-day moving average ($112,400), leaving $104,000 as the next critical support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 38, indicating fading momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within the $108K–$115K range, hinting at an upcoming breakout. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 33, placing the market firmly in the “fear” zone. Ironically, such fear-driven environments often mark the beginning of significant rallies.

Q4: Bitcoin’s Historically Strong Season

Looking at past performance, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest period. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has delivered an average 85% return during the last quarter of the year. November alone has averaged 46% gains, while October has brought around 21% increases.

This year may follow a similar trajectory. Analysts point to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a shift toward risk assets as major catalysts. On top of that, a striking supply-demand imbalance could fuel Bitcoin’s growth: only $77 billion worth of new BTC is issued annually, compared to an estimated $3 trillion in institutional demand.

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“A Huge Move Is Coming for Bitcoin”

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto shared a highly bullish outlook on X earlier this week:

“I think we’re going to see a massive move up by Bitcoin soon. We’re at a pivotal moment right now, BTC is about to soar and won’t look back.”

His statement came right after Bitcoin’s sharp retracement on Monday, when the asset dropped from around $116,000 to just above $112,000.

Chart Structures Point to Bullish Breakout

According to Colin, the recent dip should not worry investors. Instead, he highlighted a series of overlapping bullish formations, including:

• Multiple inverse head-and-shoulders patterns,

• A larger broadening wedge structure,

that could collectively fuel a breakout toward $140,000 before year-end.

He also emphasized that current market sentiment — with many questioning whether the bull run is already over — actually reflects the opposite of peak euphoria, making it a healthier setup for future gains.

October’s Historical Strength

Another analyst, Elite Crypto, pointed out that despite the latest pullback, Bitcoin is still up nearly 4% in September, a month that traditionally leans bearish.

“October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months,” the analyst noted, reminding investors that average Uptober returns stand at 21.89%. Even a modest 10% increase, they added, could trigger significant rallies in the altcoin market.

Backing this sentiment, LANGERIUS, founder of Hunters of Web3, remarked:

“Uptober’s historical track record shows why patience outperforms emotional trading.”

Market Conditions After the Sell-Off

Following Monday’s $150 billion leverage flush, markets have been searching for stability. The total crypto market cap currently sits at $3.96 trillion, down about 2% on the day.

• Bitcoin is consolidating just above $112,000, roughly 9.5% below its all-time high. This correction is notably milder compared to the 13% drop earlier this month.

• Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 4%, dipping below $4,200 — its lowest level in two weeks.

• Altcoins endured even heavier pressure as leverage was unwound, with many recording double-digit weekly losses.

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October: A Historically Bullish Month

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has posted gains in 10 out of the past 12 Octobers since 2013. This track record earned the month its nickname, “Uptober.” The last time Bitcoin recorded a loss in October was back in 2018, when the asset dropped by 3.8%.

In bull market years, October rallies have been especially strong:

• 2017: +48% gain

• 2021: +40% gain

If a similar performance occurs this year, Bitcoin could potentially surge toward $165,000 from its current levels.

Rate Cut Speculation and Liquidity Outlook

Investor Kyle Chassé pointed out that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have climbed to 92%, based on CME futures. He argued that easing monetary policy is already priced in and that additional liquidity could serve as critical fuel for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.

Meanwhile, analyst Sykodelic suggested that markets may first dip lower before a strong October rebound. They highlighted $112,500 as a key level, suggesting that once reached, the path to new highs and the next euphoric phase could open up.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed this liquidity narrative, noting that once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) — which recently surpassed $850 billion — finishes replenishment, the “up only” phase could resume.

Not Everyone Is Convinced

Despite the optimism surrounding “Uptober,” some analysts remain cautious. Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, warned that low implied volatility, weak inflow momentum, and profit-taking behavior could limit the scale of any potential rally. He emphasized that long-term investors may need to wait longer before seeing new all-time highs.

Similarly, BTSE COO Jeff Mei expressed skepticism, pointing to macroeconomic uncertainty and September’s relatively stable markets as reasons why this year’s Uptober rally may not play out as expected. However, he added that a more aggressive Fed stimulus plan could shift sentiment.

Current Market Snapshot

Crypto markets started the week with heavy losses. The total market capitalization shrank by $80 billion within hours, as Bitcoin slid to a 12-day low of $114,270.

Ethereum also felt the pressure, losing over 4% and falling below $4,300, marking its lowest point in two weeks.

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– FTX Restructuring Hearing: 10:00 AM (EST) – A court hearing to confirm FTX’s restructuring plan. If approved, creditors with claims under $50,000 could start receiving payments by the end of 2024, while larger claims will be processed in 2025.

October 8th (Tuesday)

– OKX Delisting: No specific time for delisting provided, but tokens REN, TAKI, LEASH, ORB, and KINE will be removed from the platform.

October 9th (Wednesday)

– HBO Documentary Release: 9:00 PM (EST) – HBO’s documentary, allegedly revealing the identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, will be released. This could lead to movements in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

– FOMC Meeting Minutes: 2:00 PM (EST) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting. This could impact the crypto market, depending on the tone and content of the discussions.

– Blockworks Permissionless Event: Starts during the day in U.S. business hours, creating potential market optimism.

– Stacks (STX) Nakamoto Hard Fork: No specific time provided, but it will happen on this day and may cause significant price action for STX.

October 10th (Thursday)

– U.S. Economic Data Releases (All at 8:30 AM EST):

– Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (Monthly): Expected 0.2%, Previous 0.3%.

– Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (Annual): Expected 2.3%, Previous 2.5%.

– Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (Monthly): Expected 0.1%, Previous 0.2%.

– Jobless Claims: Expected 229K, Previous 225K.

– Tesla Robot Launch: The specific time has not been provided, but this could generate market excitement during business hours.

– Chiliz (CHZ) Airdrop: No specific time provided, but the PEPPER token airdrop snapshot for Chiliz holders will be taken on this day.

October 11th (Friday)

– Producer Price Index (PPI) for September (Monthly): 8:30 AM (EST) – This key economic indicator will be released, with expectations of 0.1% (Previous 0.2%).

– BlackRock Earnings Report: 6:00 PM (EST) – BlackRock will release its earnings report. Given its influence in the ETF market, this could have a ripple effect on the cryptocurrency market.

The post Attention! Critical Week for the Crypto Market: Key Events Ahead appeared first on Coin Engineer.