Rally Interrupted

In early October, Bitcoin surged past the $114,000–$117,000 resistance range to reach a new all-time high above $126,000. According to Glassnode, the rally was driven by strong spot ETF inflows and renewed buying activity from mid-sized investors.

Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best months. Data shows the cryptocurrency has averaged over 46% returns in October since 2013. Yet this year, the trend took an unexpected turn. On October 11, the market witnessed the largest single-day liquidation event in history — around $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, sending BTC tumbling to nearly $102,000 before a mild recovery.

Liquidity and Leverage Pressure

Analysts note that the sell-off wasn’t caused by selling pressure alone. A lack of market depth made the price drop much sharper. A mid-October report from Kaiko highlighted how “panic-driven trading exposed a severe liquidity gap across BTC order books,” with some exchanges appearing nearly empty for several minutes during the crash.

K33 Research, however, views the liquidation as a reset rather than a collapse. Analysts there argue that excessive leverage has now been cleared out, creating a healthier market structure. They suggest that the coming weeks could provide “a favorable environment for capital deployment” as funding rates and derivatives normalize.

Can Uptober Still Recover?

Before the crash, Glassnode reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted over $2.2 billion in inflows, signaling that institutional appetite remains strong.

In the end, this year’s Uptober illustrates two key realities: institutional flows can lift the market significantly, but a single liquidity shock can wipe out progress in hours. Whether October finishes strong will depend on how quickly market makers and institutional investors rebuild liquidity depth. If they do, Uptober might still close on a bullish note.

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Sharp October Drops Are Rare — But Often Lead to Powerful Recoveries

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), economist Timothy Peterson noted that Bitcoin has only fallen more than 5% in October four times in the past decade — specifically in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.

During those periods, Bitcoin recovered 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019 within just one week.
The only exception was 2021, when the crypto asset extended its decline by another 3% instead of rebounding.

“Uptober” Returns: Historically One of Bitcoin’s Strongest Months

Among crypto investors, October is often dubbed “Uptober” — a month historically known for delivering strong positive returns for Bitcoin.

According to CoinGlass data, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, bringing an average return of 20.10%.
November tops the list with an impressive 46.02% average gain, making the fourth quarter traditionally bullish for the market.

If History Repeats, Bitcoin Could Return to $124,000

Peterson’s remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, which triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $102,000.

Shortly after, Bitcoin managed to recover to $112,468, following a brief dip just days after reaching a new all-time high of $125,100.

If Bitcoin mirrors its 2019 pattern, when the price surged 21% after a similar drop, the current setup could push the asset back toward $124,000 within the next week.

Optimism Remains Strong Among Bitcoin Supporters

Despite the recent pullback, many leading Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the broader uptrend will continue.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, posted on X:

“There are still 21 days left in Uptober.”

Similarly, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, described the current price movement as “the bottom of the current cycle.”
He compared it to the COVID-19 crash, which marked the previous cycle’s low, suggesting that history may once again be repeating itself.

Some analysts even offered a longer-term view. The pseudonymous investor The Bitcoin Libertarian commented:

“In a few years, Bitcoin will drop from $1 million to $800,000 in a few hours — and we’ll all be talking about another record liquidation event. Let history repeat.”

*This content does not contain investment advice.

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Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Phenomenon: Historically Strong Performance

October has long been dubbed “Uptober” in the crypto community, as historical data shows this month often brings significant price surges. This year is no exception; Bitcoin’s momentum has not only fueled itself but also sparked capital flow toward older altcoins. Historical trends confirm this month as one of the brightest periods for bull markets.

Investor Behavior: Low Profit-Taking for Bitcoin

According to recent analyses, Bitcoin holders earned a total of $30 billion in profits over the past 30 days. This figure is well below July’s $63 billion peak and significantly lower than the $78–99 billion seen in March and December 2024. Long-term holders’ (LTH) average realized profit margin stands at 129%, far below the 300% threshold that typically signals market exhaustion. This suggests investors remain bullish and aren’t rushing to sell.

Support Signals from Derivatives Markets

Movements in the options market further bolster the optimistic outlook. According to researcher Adam Chu, call options between $120,000 and $140,000 are among the most actively traded contracts, with the $120,000 level being a key concentration point. Low gamma levels among market makers mean minor price swings aren’t causing major disruptions. The $110,000 level forms a strong support line, while new highs could trigger accelerated buying.

Expert Opinions: Positive Q4 Outlook

Adam Chu emphasizes that institutional players are also optimistic about this period: “I predict market conditions will remain positive throughout October. Many experienced institutional investors see the final quarter as promising.” Bitcoin’s rally is supported by long-term holders’ restraint and bullish positions from derivatives professionals. Even with short-term pullbacks, the overall trend appears upward.

These insights suggest Bitcoin’s October rally still has breathing room. Cautious optimism may be the key strategy for investors.

This content is not investment advice.

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Funds Lead Weekly Gains!

Fidelity’s FBTC, Ark Invest’s ARKB, and Bitwise’s BTB funds saw record inflows. They raised $622.3 million, $219 million, and $187.9 million, respectively. There was intense interest in ETFs. The Bitcoin price surpassed $120,000 for the first time since August.

BRN Research Director Timothy Misir stated that October is historically a strong period for Bitcoin. Misir also added that a similar upward trend has been observed this year.

You May Be Interested In: Bitcoin ETF: Trillion-Dollar Funds in Play

It was noteworthy that the IBIT ETF alone accounted for $4.3 billion of the total $5.6 billion in ETF trading on Thursday. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said that IBIT ranks among the top 10 ETFs in terms of daily volume, alongside major ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and GLD. Additionally, it has entered the top 20 ETFs in terms of assets under management at BlackRock ETF for the first time. IBIT has emerged as a clear leader in the market this week.

Institutional Interest Boosts “Uptober” Momentum!

Bitcoin‘s rise occurred despite the potential shutdown of the US government and a sharp decline in employment. Analysts attribute the strong interest in ETFs and Bitcoin’s rise to the “Uptober” momentum. Institutional investors’ shift toward the crypto market continues to grow. Since January 2024, cumulative inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $60 billion. “Uptober” stands out as a historically strong month for Bitcoin.

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“A Huge Move Is Coming for Bitcoin”

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto shared a highly bullish outlook on X earlier this week:

“I think we’re going to see a massive move up by Bitcoin soon. We’re at a pivotal moment right now, BTC is about to soar and won’t look back.”

His statement came right after Bitcoin’s sharp retracement on Monday, when the asset dropped from around $116,000 to just above $112,000.

Chart Structures Point to Bullish Breakout

According to Colin, the recent dip should not worry investors. Instead, he highlighted a series of overlapping bullish formations, including:

• Multiple inverse head-and-shoulders patterns,

• A larger broadening wedge structure,

that could collectively fuel a breakout toward $140,000 before year-end.

He also emphasized that current market sentiment — with many questioning whether the bull run is already over — actually reflects the opposite of peak euphoria, making it a healthier setup for future gains.

October’s Historical Strength

Another analyst, Elite Crypto, pointed out that despite the latest pullback, Bitcoin is still up nearly 4% in September, a month that traditionally leans bearish.

“October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months,” the analyst noted, reminding investors that average Uptober returns stand at 21.89%. Even a modest 10% increase, they added, could trigger significant rallies in the altcoin market.

Backing this sentiment, LANGERIUS, founder of Hunters of Web3, remarked:

“Uptober’s historical track record shows why patience outperforms emotional trading.”

Market Conditions After the Sell-Off

Following Monday’s $150 billion leverage flush, markets have been searching for stability. The total crypto market cap currently sits at $3.96 trillion, down about 2% on the day.

• Bitcoin is consolidating just above $112,000, roughly 9.5% below its all-time high. This correction is notably milder compared to the 13% drop earlier this month.

• Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 4%, dipping below $4,200 — its lowest level in two weeks.

• Altcoins endured even heavier pressure as leverage was unwound, with many recording double-digit weekly losses.

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October: A Historically Bullish Month

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has posted gains in 10 out of the past 12 Octobers since 2013. This track record earned the month its nickname, “Uptober.” The last time Bitcoin recorded a loss in October was back in 2018, when the asset dropped by 3.8%.

In bull market years, October rallies have been especially strong:

• 2017: +48% gain

• 2021: +40% gain

If a similar performance occurs this year, Bitcoin could potentially surge toward $165,000 from its current levels.

Rate Cut Speculation and Liquidity Outlook

Investor Kyle Chassé pointed out that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have climbed to 92%, based on CME futures. He argued that easing monetary policy is already priced in and that additional liquidity could serve as critical fuel for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.

Meanwhile, analyst Sykodelic suggested that markets may first dip lower before a strong October rebound. They highlighted $112,500 as a key level, suggesting that once reached, the path to new highs and the next euphoric phase could open up.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed this liquidity narrative, noting that once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) — which recently surpassed $850 billion — finishes replenishment, the “up only” phase could resume.

Not Everyone Is Convinced

Despite the optimism surrounding “Uptober,” some analysts remain cautious. Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, warned that low implied volatility, weak inflow momentum, and profit-taking behavior could limit the scale of any potential rally. He emphasized that long-term investors may need to wait longer before seeing new all-time highs.

Similarly, BTSE COO Jeff Mei expressed skepticism, pointing to macroeconomic uncertainty and September’s relatively stable markets as reasons why this year’s Uptober rally may not play out as expected. However, he added that a more aggressive Fed stimulus plan could shift sentiment.

Current Market Snapshot

Crypto markets started the week with heavy losses. The total market capitalization shrank by $80 billion within hours, as Bitcoin slid to a 12-day low of $114,270.

Ethereum also felt the pressure, losing over 4% and falling below $4,300, marking its lowest point in two weeks.

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Bitcoin is Getting Ready to End of a Good “Uptober”

Bitcoin, which closed last week just below $68,000, is trying to break out of its bearish channel, and investors are excited about new bullish momentum. In addition, the price gap seen at $67,000 on the CME Bitcoin futures market indicates a short-term correction level, and this level is being highlighted. Leading analysts such as Daan Crypto Trades state that the coming weeks, and especially November, could create big moves in BTC prices.

Bitcoin Data Shows Uptober Monthly Close Will Be a Good One

In particular, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has broken above the 200-day SMA, creating a “golden cross.” This move occurred during the same period last year, according to Satoshi Stacker, and resulted in Bitcoin doubling in value in the next five months. If the same scenario repeats itself, BTC/USD is expected to reach six-figure prices in Q1 2025.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

While large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, weak retail investor interest is also supporting BTC price strength. Analysts emphasize that breaking the $70,000 resistance is a critical threshold for Bitcoin to enter a new macro uptrend.

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According to the data, Bitcoin price increased by nearly 5% during the day, approaching its highest levels in two weeks. Trading in the US accelerated with the purchases that started in the Asian session.

Might interest you: New Crypto Step from Harris, Who Has Fallen Behind Trump

Bitcoin Uptober Analysts Raises Conserns

Crypto market analysis platform Material Indicators stated that large Bitcoin whales are buying again at the current price levels. The platform emphasized that there are signs that a major sell wall, especially located at $65,500, is about to be broken.

With Bitcoin’s rise to $66,000, important trend lines on daily charts have regained strength as support levels. Popular analyst On-Chain College drew attention to the fact that bull market support levels such as the 200-day moving average and the short-term investor cost floor are back in play, and asked, “Has Uptober started?” brought up the question.

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This conflict had a major impact on global markets, and cryptocurrencies were also hit hard by these negative developments.

Bitcoin Dropped to $60,200 Due to Liquidations

On October 1, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel. This attack, which was recorded as the second this year, came after a similar attack in April. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that a harsh response would be given.

These developments increased uncertainty in global markets and negatively affected cryptocurrencies. With the escalation of tensions, the value of Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline and fell 6% from $64,000 to below $60,200. This decline triggered massive liquidations, with liquidations reaching $523.37 million in the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

Long positions were the most affected by this process, with $451 million worth of positions liquidated. Short positions lost more than $71 million. Market volatility caused 154,011 investors to liquidate their positions, with a single order worth $12.66 million on the BTCUSDT trading pair on Binance being the largest liquidation.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw significant outflows. According to SoSoValue data, a total outflow of $242.53 million occurred on October 1. This was the largest outflow in almost a month and the third largest outflow in the last five months.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) experienced the largest outflow, losing $144.67 million. Other funds, such as the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), also saw significant pullbacks. However, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bucked the trend, bringing in $40.84 million and continuing without an outflow for 15 days.

These market events also affected investor sentiment. The crypto fear and greed index fell into the “fear” category, falling from a neutral level of 50 the day before to 42. This change shows how sensitive the market is to external geopolitical events and how strongly these events can affect investor behavior.

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